061
FXUS61 KBGM 151733
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
133 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATING AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE
THE MAIN THREATS.
2) ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
3) A DRAMATIC PATTERN SHIFT WILL BEGIN SUNDAY WITH A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOLLOWED BY FALLING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE NEAR TERM CONCERNS ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.
THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AS OF 1 PM, BUT
WILL JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SB CAPE
VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG, ALONG WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THE COMBINATION OF A PLUME OF DEEP AVAILABLE MOISTURE,
25 TO 35 KT OF DEEP SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.7
DEGC/KM SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. CONVECTIVE INITIATION COULD END UP
BEING THE CHALLENGE. THERE REALLY ISN'T ANY WELL-DEFINED FEATURE TO
PROVIDE THE SUPPORT FOR STRONG ASCENT, UNLESS THE REMNANTS OF A
PROPAGATING, RELATIVELY SMALL MCS/MCV COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES MAKE IT TO THE WESTERN NY/PA BORDER. THIS POTENTIAL
FEATURE COULD PROVIDE THE SUPPORT FOR THE STORMS TO PERSISTENT
FARTHER TO THE EAST AND ALSO MAINTAIN INTENSITY.
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITHIN ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 6 PM AND 12 AM. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PWS AROUND 1.5 INCHES, AND IF
HEAVY RAIN FALLS OVER THE SAME AREA OR ON LOCATIONS WITH MOIST
ANTECEDENT SURFACE CONDITIONS, THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.
THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
AFTER 1 AM THU WITH FOG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS LATE IN THE
DAY THURSDAY AS WELL.
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL CREATE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY, AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST WILL HELP PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT, AND WHEN COMBINED WITH BUILDING
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED AREAS OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS
HIGHLIGHTING A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL NY IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS. CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 3-5 PM
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES OR JUST TO THE NORTH. THESE STORMS WILL PUSH
EASTWARD QUICKLY, INITIALLY IN DISCRETE MODE, BUT THEN POTENTIALLY
BECOMING MORE LINEAR WITH TIME. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE LIKELY HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS, BUT A SECONDARY THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR WITH BACKED SURFACE WINDS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND FLASH
FLOODING CANNOT BE OVERLOOKED EITHER. WITH MULTIPLE PREVIOUS DAYS OF
RAIN AND WET SURFACE CONDITIONS, ANY HEAVY RAIN EXCEEDING
APPROXIMATELY 1.5 INCHES IN AN HOUR COULD POTENTIALLY CAUSE ISSUES.
AGAIN, AFTER A LOSS OF HEATING THURSDAY EVENING, MOST OF THE INTENSE
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AND END CLOSE TO/AROUND MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE ONSET OF A RELATIVELY COLD
AIR MASS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL CAUSE A
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS COLD AIR
MASS WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST/SW IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY FALLING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MIDDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S, BUT DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
START TO REALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND MON NIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...AND A FEW LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHEAST PA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER AT TIMES.
DRIER AIR SETTLES IN MON NIGHT BUT WITH MID TO UPPER 20S ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S GOING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH, WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY
AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR. THE REST OF THE DAY
IS LOOKING DRY AS CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THE SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY, LIKELY NOT UNTIL THE
EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE LATE TIMING, THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET SO STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN. STILL,
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SECOND ROUND OF
ACTIVITY. SYR AND RME WILL POTENTIALLY BE TOO FAR NORTH FOR
THESE THUNDERSTORMS, SO NO THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THEIR TAFS.
THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY AT AVP IF THE LINE WILL EXTEND THAT
FAR SOUTH. FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS, ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
PROB30 GROUPS BASED ON UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINITY WITH THE TIMING.
FOLLOWING THE CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN IN MVFR TO FUEL ALT, AT LEAST AT THE CNY TERMINALS.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE PARTING LINE AS
WELL, ESPECIALLY AT SYR AND RME.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER THE MORNING LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES
THROUGH WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME CALMER ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WIND
DIRECTION WILL VARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, STARTING OUT SOUTHERLY
AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO
POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO ARRIVE ALONG WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJT
AVIATION...BTL
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