335
FXUS61 KBGM 161021
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
621 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ANOTHER RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
THAT THE THREAT WILL BE PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE TWIN TIERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED THIS COMING
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, THOUGH THIS TIME ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THE TWIN TIERS. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
2) A DRAMATIC PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
A ROUND OF RAIN AND PERHAPS THUNDER SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COLDER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK INCLUDING SNOW SHOWERS FOR
SOME PARTS OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FOR THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE DAY WE WILL HAVE A RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH THIS TIME THE FOCUS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE TWIN TIERS.
A SUBTLE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND BY THE CONVECTION WE JUST
HAD IN THE EVENING, WILL DRIFT RIGHT BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY
TO ALLOW WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BE REALIZED AGAIN
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INTO THE
LOWER 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS, SO IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL AHEAD OF
PACE COMPARED TO THE CALENDAR.
UNLIKE THE PRIOR COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE WILL BE MORE FORCING VIA
AN INCOMING UPPER WAVE AND EVENTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR ALOFT, AS SOUTHWESTERLY WARM AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS BELOW. A RATHER ROBUST AND EVEN TOP-HEAVY
CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY PROFILE SHOULD SET UP FOR
THE FINGER LAKES TO CENTRAL NEW YORK POINTING TO NOT JUST
DAMAGING GUSTS BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL; FARTHER SOUTH
THERE WILL BE MORE UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION/THERMAL CAPPING HOLDING ON EVEN LATE IN THE DAY.
THE SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A GOOD
PORTION OF CENTRAL NY IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 3-5 PM ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES OR JUST TO THE NORTH. THESE STORMS WILL PUSH
EASTWARD QUICKLY, INITIALLY IN DISCRETE MODE, BUT THEN
POTENTIALLY BECOMING MORE LINEAR WITH TIME. AS MENTIONED THE
PRIMARY THREATS ARE LIKELY HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT WITHIN STORM-SCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS, AND THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOMETIMES CAN CAUSE ITS OWN
TOPOGRAPHICAL INFLUENCES. HOWEVER, SHEAR EVEN FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK WILL BE MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SINCE THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT
SO FAR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
IT WAS A GOOD THING THAT MOST RAINFALL DURING THE EVENT THAT
JUST CONCLUDED WAS MOSTLY IN THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA, BECAUSE THE NORTHERN THIRD REMAINS SENSITIVE. THAT SAID,
FOR THE COMING AFTERNOON-EVENING, WE WILL STILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE IT IS THE
MOST SENSITIVE. SPEED OF CELLS THOUGH WILL PROBABLY MOSTLY
MITIGATE THE THREAT, AND THUS IS MORE OF A SECONDARY RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE UP TO SATURDAY, BUT A RAINY
COLD FRONT IN THE EVENING WILL HERALD AN ABRUPT PATTERN FLIP TO
MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BUMP DOWN SOME ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRIOR BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS, YET STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
OF MID 60S TO MID 70S. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY, OTHERWISE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE FOR WINDOW OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
SATURDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY,
WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW BOOSTING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A VERY WELL-MARKED
FRONT TRAILING FROM STRONG CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE. A NARROW YET
SIGNIFICANT RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL POOL ALL THE WAY UP FROM
THE WESTERN GULF, CAUSING RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO SWEEP
ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
ABRUPTLY COLDER WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL INITIALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S, YET UNDER STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH ANY
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S, AND
A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE
ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. DRIER AIR SETTLES IN MONDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BE OUR COLDEST; 20S AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES
RECOVER BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW CLOUDS FROM A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
BRINGING RESTRICTIONS TO RME THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EVENING HOURS. AS
ANOTHER BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR FOR MAINLY CENTRAL NY COUNTIES.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MDP
AVIATION...KL
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