385
FXUS61 KBGM 161710
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
110 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT OCCURRING FROM
5 PM TO 10 PM TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT,
WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES REGION AND INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND TUG HILL
PLATEAU REGION. STRONG WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
2) A DRAMATIC PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK INCLUDING
SNOW SHOWERS FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINT READINGS INTO THE LOW
60S. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH WILL BE THE
KICKER FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AS CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO
1000-1500 J/KG. THE SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL NY IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
INITIALLY BE DISCRETE CELLS, BUT THEN WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
LINEAR WITH TIME, ESPECIALLY AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE LIKELY HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT INTERACT WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO. AT THIS TIME,
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH
WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS NOT A MAJOR CONCERN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE UP TO SATURDAY, BUT A RAINY
COLD FRONT IN THE EVENING WILL HERALD AN ABRUPT PATTERN FLIP TO
MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BUMP DOWN SOME ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRIOR BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS, YET STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
OF MID 60S TO MID 70S. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY, OTHERWISE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE FOR WINDOW OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
SATURDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY,
WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW BOOSTING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A VERY WELL-MARKED
FRONT TRAILING FROM STRONG CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE. A NARROW YET
SIGNIFICANT RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL POOL ALL THE WAY UP FROM
THE WESTERN GULF, CAUSING RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO SWEEP
ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
ABRUPTLY COLDER WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL INITIALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S, YET UNDER STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH ANY
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S, AND
A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE
ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. DRIER AIR SETTLES IN MONDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BE OUR COLDEST; 20S AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES
RECOVER BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LOW CLOUDS FROM A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
BRINGING RESTRICTIONS TO RME THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EVENING HOURS. AS
ANOTHER BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR FOR MAINLY CENTRAL NY COUNTIES.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPK/MDP
AVIATION...KL
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