811
FXUS61 KBGM 170007
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
807 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ANY STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
RESTRICTED TO THE NY THRUWAY COUNTIES EAST OF SYRACUSE AT THIS
POINT, WITH THE REST OF THE AREA QUICKLY SLIPPING BEHIND THE
GUSTY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LINGERING POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS.
REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING FOR
THE NEW YORK THRUWAY COUNTIES EAST OF SYRACUSE, A FEW OF WHICH
COULD BE SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS. FOR THE AREA OVERALL,
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES.
2) A DRAMATIC PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK INCLUDING
SNOW SHOWERS FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INGREDIENTS ARE QUICKLY GETTING PINCHED OUT
BY AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT, UPROOTING SURFACE-BASED CELLS INTO
ELEVATED SHOWERS. MADISON-ONEIDA COUNTIES WILL STILL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS HAIL, BUT BY 10 PM THEY WILL JOIN THE REST OF THE AREA
WITH CLOUDY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS, LINGERING SHOWERS, AND
FALLING TEMPERATURES. THAT SAID, TEMPERATURES ONLY SETTLE
MODESTLY OVERNIGHT INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR LOWS WHICH. WHILE
COOLER THAN THE PRIOR NIGHT, IS STILL QUITE MILD FOR MID APRIL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE UP TO SATURDAY, BUT A RAINY
COLD FRONT IN THE EVENING WILL HERALD AN ABRUPT PATTERN FLIP TO
MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BUMP DOWN SOME ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRIOR BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS, YET STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
OF MID 60S TO MID 70S. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY, OTHERWISE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE FOR WINDOW OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
SATURDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY,
WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW BOOSTING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A VERY WELL-MARKED
FRONT TRAILING FROM STRONG CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE. A NARROW YET
SIGNIFICANT RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL POOL ALL THE WAY UP FROM
THE WESTERN GULF, CAUSING RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO SWEEP
ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
ABRUPTLY COLDER WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL INITIALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S, YET UNDER STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH ANY
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S, AND
A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE
ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. DRIER AIR SETTLES IN MONDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BE OUR COLDEST; 20S AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES
RECOVER BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
00Z UPDATE...
A FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING, WITH AT LEAST
SHOWERS AND NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT, AND IN THE CASE OF KSYR-
KRME THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT, CEILINGS WILL SETTLE INTO
FUEL ALTERNATE REQUIRED TO IFR LEVELS FOR KSYR-KRME-KITH-KBGM
LATER TONIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
LIFTING IN SCATTERING TOWARDS MIDDAY FRIDAY. KELM-KAVP ARE
UNLIKELY TO REACH IFR, BUT SHOULD STILL AT LEAST MANAGE MVFR
CEILINGS AND PROBABLY BELOW 2000 FEET FOR A TIME DURING THE
EARLY MORNING.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...SHOWERY COLD FRONT
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER AND A GUSTY WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BLUSTERY CHILLY POST-
FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH PROBABLE RESTRICTIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THEN A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MINOR RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPK/MDP
AVIATION...MDP
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