119
FXUS61 KBGM 170601
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
201 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINDS WERE INCREASED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING A TASTE OF
WINTER BACK INTO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. COOLER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
2) A DRAMATIC PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A ROUND OF SOAKING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COLDER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK INCLUDING SNOW SHOWERS FOR SOME
PARTS OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING, MAINLY AROUND THE FINGER LAKES REGION, AS THE LAGGING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MID MORNING, BUT AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, THE LOWER HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH A SLIGHTLY
COOLER, EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE CATSKILLS AND PARTS OF
THE POCONOS CAN SET UP SOME SPOTTY INSTABILITY SHOWERS, AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. BY
THE EARLY EVENING, BRIEF RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THURSDAY, BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID
APRIL. HIGHS WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL DOWN BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW
50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY, SETTING UP A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW BOOSTING
TEMPERATURES BACK UP WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A VERY WELL-MARKED FRONT TRAILING FROM
STRONG CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH GUSTS SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AVERAGING 25 TO 35 MPH. A NARROW YET
SIGNIFICANT RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL POOL ALL THE WAY UP FROM THE
WESTERN GULF, CAUSING RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO SWEEP ACROSS
OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE HYDRO
CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME, WE WILL BE MONITORING AREAS
WEST OF I-81 WHERE SOME OF THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS SEEM TO BE
EYEING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING TO POSSIBLY RETURN. THE
ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS HAVE BOTH THE TIOUGHNIOGA AT CORTLAND
AND CAYUGA LAKE AT ITHACA WITH A 30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING MINOR
AND MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS RESPECTIVELY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
ABRUPTLY COLDER WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL INITIALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS CNY TO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS, BUT
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO FALLING
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH ANY LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S, AND A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ANYWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. DRIER AIR SETTLES
IN MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE OUR COLDEST, DROPPING INTO THE 20S
AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S GOING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
POST-FRONTAL FUEL ALT TO IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR RME,
AND BE INTRODUCED TO SYR-ITH-BGM-ELM LATER TONIGHT INTO THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL LIFTING IN SCATTERING
TOWARDS MIDDAY TODAY. KAVP IS UNLIKELY TO REACH IFR, BUT SHOULD
STILL AT LEAST GET MVFR CEILINGS A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...SHOWERY COLD FRONT
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER AND A GUSTY WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BLUSTERY CHILLY POST-
FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH PROBABLE RESTRICTIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THEN A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MINOR RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DK/MPK
AVIATION...KL
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