910
FXUS61 KBGM 171756
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY SATURDAY.
2) A DRAMATIC PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A ROUND OF SOAKING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COLDER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK INCLUDING SNOW SHOWERS FOR SOME
PARTS OF THE AREA.
3) A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA, A NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN INSTABILITY RAIN
SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE POCONOS-
CATSKILLS. A FEW ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED AND THE
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
BY EARLY THIS EVENING EVENING, BRIEF RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE, LEADING TO DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MOST OF THE DAY
ON SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
LATER IN THE DAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO PARTS OF
THE FINGER LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MOST OF THE
RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT, A SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP, WHICH
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. WINDS MAY OCCASIONAL GUST
UP TO 25-35 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK MIXING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A NARROW, YET SIGNIFICANT RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL POOL ALL THE
WAY UP FROM THE WESTERN GULF, CAUSING RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER
TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WHILE HYDRO CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME, WE WILL BE
MONITORING AREAS WEST OF I-81 WHERE SOME OF THE HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS SEEM TO BE EYEING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING TO
POSSIBLY RETURN.
ABRUPTLY COLDER WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL INITIALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS CNY TO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS, BUT
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO FALLING
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH ANY LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S, AND A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ANYWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. DRIER AIR SETTLES
IN MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT, DROPPING INTO
THE 20S AREAWIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AS RIDGING
STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, ONCE WE GET PAST MONDAY'S CHILLY
WEATHER, TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY (BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S). TEMPERATURES WILL THEN CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS NEXT WEEK WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY, UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ON THURSDAY, AND MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CURRENT FUEL ALT TO IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL TERMINALS,
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL LIFTING IN SCATTERING TOWARDS MIDDAY TODAY.
SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT A FEW TERMINALS, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AFTER 12Z AS WE START TO WARM FOR THE DAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...SHOWERY COLD FRONT
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER AND A GUSTY WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BLUSTERY CHILLY POST-
FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH PROBABLE RESTRICTIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THEN A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MINOR RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG/DK
AVIATION...KL
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