126
FXUS61 KBGM 172355
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
755 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE THIS EVENING, JUST MINOR
TOUCHES TO FORECAST CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. ANY
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ENDED AND SKIES ARE NOW MAINLY CLEAR.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONDITIONS HAVE NOW DRIED OUT THIS EVENING AND DRY WEATHER IS
NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
2) A DRAMATIC PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A ROUND OF SOAKING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COLDER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK INCLUDING SNOW SHOWERS FOR SOME
PARTS OF THE AREA.
3) A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BRIEF RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE THIS EVENING, LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY, WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO PARTS OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MOST OF THE RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT, A
SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP, WHICH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS. WINDS MAY OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 25-35 MPH,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK MIXING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A NARROW, YET SIGNIFICANT RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL POOL ALL THE
WAY UP FROM THE WESTERN GULF, CAUSING RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER
TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WHILE HYDRO CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME, WE WILL BE
MONITORING AREAS WEST OF I-81 WHERE SOME OF THE HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS SEEM TO BE EYEING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING TO
POSSIBLY RETURN.
ABRUPTLY COLDER WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL INITIALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS CNY TO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS, BUT
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO FALLING
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH ANY LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S, AND A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ANYWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. DRIER AIR SETTLES
IN MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT, DROPPING INTO
THE 20S AREAWIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AS RIDGING
STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, ONCE WE GET PAST MONDAY'S CHILLY
WEATHER, TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY (BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S). TEMPERATURES WILL THEN CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS NEXT WEEK WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY, UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ON THURSDAY, AND MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AND/OR STRATUS CLOUDS INVOF BGM, ITH AND
AVP BETWEEN ABOUT 06-12Z LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW ON FOG DEVELOPMENT, AND MODERATE FOR
SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT BGM AND NEAR AVP. ANY EARLY MORNING
CLOUDS OR PATCHY FOG DISSIPATED BY 12-14Z AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AREAWIDE THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z SATURDAY. TOWARD THE VERY
END OF THIS TAF PERIOD A LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST; LIKELY HOLDING OFF ON
IMPACTING ANY OF OUR TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND 23-01Z...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING NO MENTION OF RAIN OR T'STORMS WAS MADE
IN THE CURRENT TAFS. THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED WITH THE NEXT TAF
UPDATES AT 06Z TONIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE BETWEEN 5-10 KTS TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME GUSTY BETWEEN 15-25 KTS BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY EVENING...SHOWERY COLD FRONT WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER AND
A GUSTY WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST- NORTHWEST.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BLUSTERY, CHILLY POST-
FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH PROBABLE RESTRICTIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THEN A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MINOR RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG/DK
AVIATION...ES/MJM
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