175
FXUS61 KBGM 180558
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
158 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE LOW LEVELS, DEW POINTS
WERE LOWERED FOR MUCH OF TODAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN BY THIS EVENING. POPS WERE
INCREASED ON SUNDAY FOR SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH STRONG
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF TODAY BEFORE A
ROUND OF SOAKING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT, A
DRAMATIC PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR
SOME PARTS OF THE AREA.
2) A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BEGINNING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE BRIEFLY IN PLACE TODAY LEADING TO
DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE FILTERED
THROUGH CLOUDS EARLY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES SETS UP A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW, BOOSTING OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG, AND VERY WELL-MARKED COLD FRONT
TRAILING FROM A POTENT CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
BE INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH GUSTS
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OF 25 TO 35 MPH ON OCCASION.
A NARROW YET SIGNIFICANT RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL POOL ALL THE
WAY UP FROM THE WESTERN GULF, CAUSING RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER
TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS PWATS
RISE TO 1.25 TO ABOUT 1.50 INCHES. RAIN LOOKS TO ARRIVE ACROSS
OUR WESTERN AREAS BETWEEN 6 AND 8PM AND SPREAD EAST THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. WHILE HYDRO CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME, WE
WILL BE MONITORING AREAS MAINLY WEST OF I-81 WHERE SOME OF THE
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF 0.60 TO AROUND 1.00 INCH
IS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS CAN
RESULT IN CAYUGA LAKE AT ITHACA REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING.
AS THE RAIN REACHES OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
EVENING, THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY STRONG, PERHAPS ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
VERY LIMITED,0- 6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES DO LOOK TO BE AROUND
40-50 KNOTS AND WITH DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY ON
GFS AND RAP SOUNDINGS, SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT PERHAPS
COULD BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
THIS IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR LATER ON AND SPC DOES HAVE STEUBEN,
YATES AND WESTERN SCHUYLER COUNTIES UNDER MAINLY A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THE STRONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S AND 40S, BUT WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS, THESE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE
MID 20S TO NEAR 30 SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR
MOST, AND A FEW LAKE ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ANYWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. DRIER AIR
SETTLES IN MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT,
DROPPING INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE, BUT AT LEAST WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE BLAST OF WINTER-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES TO THE EAST TUESDAY AND RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK IN ALOFT MID TO LATE WEEK. AS A RESULT,
ONCE WE GET PAST MONDAY'S CHILLY WEATHER, TEMPERATURES RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY (BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S). TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WEDNESDAY ONWARDS NEXT WEEK
WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY, UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S ON THURSDAY, AND MID 60S TO LOWER 70S BY NEXT FRIDAY.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AND/OR STRATUS CLOUDS INVOF BGM, ITH AND
AVP BETWEEN ABOUT 06-12Z LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW ON FOG DEVELOPMENT, AND MODERATE FOR
SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT BGM AND NEAR AVP. ANY EARLY MORNING
CLOUDS OR PATCHY FOG DISSIPATED BY 12-14Z AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AREAWIDE THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z SATURDAY. TOWARD THE VERY
END OF THIS TAF PERIOD A LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST; LIKELY HOLDING OFF ON
IMPACTING ANY OF OUR TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND 23-01Z...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING NO MENTION OF RAIN OR T'STORMS WAS MADE
IN THE CURRENT TAFS. THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED WITH THE NEXT TAF
UPDATES AT 06Z TONIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE BETWEEN 5-10 KTS TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME GUSTY BETWEEN 15-25 KTS BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY EVENING...SHOWERY COLD FRONT WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER AND
A GUSTY WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST- NORTHWEST.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BLUSTERY, CHILLY POST-
FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH PROBABLE RESTRICTIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THEN A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MINOR RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG/DK
AVIATION...ES/MJM
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