607
FXUS61 KBGM 181047
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
647 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE LOW LEVELS, DEW POINTS
WERE LOWERED FOR MUCH OF TODAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN BY THIS EVENING. POPS WERE
INCREASED ON SUNDAY FOR SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH STRONG
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF TODAY BEFORE A
ROUND OF SOAKING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT, A
DRAMATIC PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR
SOME PARTS OF THE AREA.
2) A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BEGINNING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE BRIEFLY IN PLACE TODAY LEADING TO
DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE FILTERED
THROUGH CLOUDS EARLY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES SETS UP A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW, BOOSTING OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG, AND VERY WELL-MARKED COLD FRONT
TRAILING FROM A POTENT CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
BE INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH GUSTS
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OF 25 TO 35 MPH ON OCCASION.
A NARROW YET SIGNIFICANT RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL POOL ALL THE
WAY UP FROM THE WESTERN GULF, CAUSING RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER
TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS PWATS
RISE TO 1.25 TO ABOUT 1.50 INCHES. RAIN LOOKS TO ARRIVE ACROSS
OUR WESTERN AREAS BETWEEN 6 AND 8PM AND SPREAD EAST THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. WHILE HYDRO CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME, WE
WILL BE MONITORING AREAS MAINLY WEST OF I-81 WHERE SOME OF THE
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF 0.60 TO AROUND 1.00 INCH
IS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS CAN
RESULT IN CAYUGA LAKE AT ITHACA REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING.
AS THE RAIN REACHES OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
EVENING, THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY STRONG, PERHAPS ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
VERY LIMITED,0- 6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES DO LOOK TO BE AROUND
40-50 KNOTS AND WITH DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY ON
GFS AND RAP SOUNDINGS, SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT PERHAPS
COULD BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
THIS IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR LATER ON AND SPC DOES HAVE STEUBEN,
YATES AND WESTERN SCHUYLER COUNTIES UNDER MAINLY A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THE STRONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S AND 40S, BUT WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS, THESE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE
MID 20S TO NEAR 30 SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR
MOST, AND A FEW LAKE ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ANYWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. DRIER AIR
SETTLES IN MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT,
DROPPING INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE, BUT AT LEAST WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE BLAST OF WINTER-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES TO THE EAST TUESDAY AND RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK IN ALOFT MID TO LATE WEEK. AS A RESULT,
ONCE WE GET PAST MONDAY'S CHILLY WEATHER, TEMPERATURES RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY (BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S). TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WEDNESDAY ONWARDS NEXT WEEK
WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY, UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S ON THURSDAY, AND MID 60S TO LOWER 70S BY NEXT FRIDAY.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25KTS EXPECTED
TODAY.
A STRONG FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. MVFR/FUEL ALT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. IFR IS
FORECAST AT ELM IN THE EVENING WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
FORECAST. ITH AND BGM SHOULD SEE IFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT
WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO NWERLY. RME SHOULD SEE IFR RESTRICTIONS
FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE ARE
SIGNALS FOR IFR AT SYR, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THIS TAF SET.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY...BLUSTERY, CHILLY POST- FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH
PROBABLE RESTRICTIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THEN A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MINOR RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG/DK
AVIATION...JTC
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