025
FXUS61 KBGM 202145
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
545 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS WERE INCREASED IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TWIN TIERS AS CONVECTIVELY-DRIVEN SNOW
SHOWERS AND/OR GRAUPEL CONTINUE. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
2) A GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE PATTERN MAY BECOME
MORE UNSETTLED NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A VERY COLD AIRMASS FOR LATE-APRIL STANDARDS WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -11C AND 925MB
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND -5C. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA, WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
INSTABILITY (MUCAPE 100 J/KG) AND LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE
SURFACE TO 750MB (0-2KM) LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NY AND THE TWIN TIERS. THAT
BEING SAID, WITH THE STRONG LATE APRIL SUN ANGLE AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LIKELY AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING, SNOW
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING ON SURFACES, ESPECIALLY PAVED
ONES. IF THERE WERE TO BE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, IT WOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE PEAK SOLAR HEATING, AND MAINLY AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
OTHERWISE, BETWEEN THESE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S, MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY MARCH OR EARLY DECEMBER,
RATHER THAN 11 DAYS AWAY FROM MAY.
DRY AIR, CLEAR SKIES, AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN WILL RESULT
IN A VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD
LOWS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER TEENS
POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL COLDER SPOTS (ONEIDA COUNTY TO THE
CATSKILLS). AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY, A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP, WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND (HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S).
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, ASIDE FROM A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
WHICH MAY BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE CATSKILLS). TEMPERATURES WILL PROGRESSIVELY GET A
BIT WARMER EACH DAY STARTING TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S TUESDAY, MID 50S TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY, AND UPPER 50S
TO UPPER 60S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WE COULD BE GOING BACK INTO A WETTER
PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLE 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALY MEANS
SHOW A TROUGH TRYING TO SET UP IN THE WESTERN US AND SW FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST.
AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR CLOUD DECKS REMAIN AT ITH AND BGM AND SHOULD HANG ON INTO
THE MID-MORNING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CNY
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE SO RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW
SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS A LOT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. WINDS WILL ARE EXPECTED TO
GUST UP TO 20KTS OUT OF THE NW TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION THIS EVENING, BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITONS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
INBETWEEN SYSTEMS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS, MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG/BJG
AVIATION...JTC
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