106
FXUS61 KBGM 211717
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
117 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES AS CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE HOLD.
RAIN CHANCES WERE INCREASED FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
INITIAL MODEL OUTPUT WAS TOO LOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A GRADUAL WARMUP STARTS TODAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY
IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSIT THE AREA TONIGHT, BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
2) A BATTLE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO
THE EAST WILL GENERATE A 10 DEGREE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CWA MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BRINGS CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
THRU THE MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE REGION. COLD AIR WILL STICK AROUND THIS
MORNING, WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING TEMPS
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF I-81.
THE COLD AIR MAY LINGER EAST OF I-81, WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
BREAK 50.
A SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON, DEVELOPING A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG A REINFORCING WARM FRONT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL BE LIGHT, WILL LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CWA. THE RAIN SHOULD PUSH OUT BY LATE MORNING,
LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THRU FRIDAY,
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. WE WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, WITH A RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH TO OUR
EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AIR UNDER THE RIDGE TO MOVE IN
WEST OF I-81, WITH SOME COOLER AIR PERIODICALLY FILTERING IN
EAST OF I-81. A 10-15 DEGREE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
SET UP WED-FRI WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE FINGER LAKES AND
WESTERN TWIN TIERS AND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EAST OF I-81.
THE FLOW SEEMS PRETTY LINEAR WITH NO SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH
THAT MAY PULL COOLER AIR FARTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WET WEATHER MAY RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST IS
PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN, ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TO DIVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NW. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE TIMING
OF THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN, WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK OF THE
LOW AND WHERE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST,
BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS STARTING IN THE EVENING AND LASTING INTO
THE MID MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, BEFORE CEILINGS FALL
INTO MVFR/FUEL ALT RESTRICTIONS AFTER 09Z THRU THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE; LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...KL
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