602
FXUS61 KBGM 212107
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
507 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A GRADUAL WARMUP STARTS TODAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY
IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSIT THE AREA TONIGHT, BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
2) A BATTLE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO
THE EAST WILL GENERATE A 10 DEGREE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND SOUTH WINDS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
LOW TO MID 50S WEST OF I-81, OTHERWISE COOL AIR WILL LINGER EAST
OF I-81 WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AND LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
AMOUNTS UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE AREA WITH POCKETS OF
COLDER AIR LINGERING OVER SULLIVAN AND DELAWARE COUNTIES WITH LOWS
NEAR FREEZING TOWARDS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW TO MIX IN BRIEFLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE THE RAIN SHOULD PUSH OUT BY LATE
MORNING, LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA AND CONTINUES TO KEEP
CONDITIONS QUIET AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND A RIDGE TO OUR WEST.
WITH OUR REGION INBETWEEN THESE FEATURES TEMPERATURES DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL ALLOW A 10-15 DEGREE GRADIENT TO
DEVELOP. TOMORROW AREAS WEST OF I-81 COULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, WHILE AREAS EAST OF I-81 WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THURSDAY WILL SEE A SIMILAR
GRADIENT, BUT ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER
NORTHEAST PA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL NY.
WET WEATHER MAY RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST IS
PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN, ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TO DIVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NW. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE
RIDGE BREAKDOWN, WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND WHERE
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP.
AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST,
BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS STARTING IN THE EVENING AND LASTING INTO
THE MID MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, BEFORE CEILINGS FALL
INTO MVFR/FUEL ALT RESTRICTIONS AFTER 09Z THRU THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE; LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ES/JTC
AVIATION...KL
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