150
FXUS61 KBGM 220008
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
808 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WARM FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE REGION
TONIGHT FROM THE WEST LEADING TO SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS.
2) A BATTLE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO
THE EAST WILL GENERATE A 10 DEGREE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND SOUTH WINDS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
LOW TO MID 50S WEST OF I-81, OTHERWISE COOL AIR WILL LINGER EAST
OF I-81 WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AND LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
AMOUNTS UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE AREA WITH POCKETS OF
COLDER AIR LINGERING OVER SULLIVAN AND DELAWARE COUNTIES WITH LOWS
NEAR FREEZING TOWARDS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW TO MIX IN BRIEFLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE THE RAIN SHOULD PUSH OUT BY LATE
MORNING, LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA AND CONTINUES TO KEEP
CONDITIONS QUIET AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND A RIDGE TO OUR WEST.
WITH OUR REGION INBETWEEN THESE FEATURES TEMPERATURES DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL ALLOW A 10-15 DEGREE GRADIENT TO
DEVELOP. TOMORROW AREAS WEST OF I-81 COULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, WHILE AREAS EAST OF I-81 WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THURSDAY WILL SEE A SIMILAR
GRADIENT, BUT ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER
NORTHEAST PA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL NY.
WET WEATHER MAY RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST IS
PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN, ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TO DIVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NW. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE
RIDGE BREAKDOWN, WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND WHERE
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH
MID-MORNING TOMORROW. WHILE A GENERAL START TIME OF ABOUT 03Z IS
IN MOST OF THE TERMINALS, VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE EARLY
THIS EVENING, AND THIS CAN DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
TONIGHT, SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
WHILE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER PRIOR TO OR AROUND
DAYBREAK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS IS LOW AS MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE CURRENTLY TOO
MOIST TO START (THE RAP IS DOING THE BEST THUS FAR THIS
EVENING), ALONG WITH THERE BEING A LACK OF RESTRICTIONS
UPSTREAM. AS A RESULT, THE FORECAST DOES LEAN MORE OPTIMISTIC
THAN GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME THROUGH TOMORROW WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED; PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE; LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ES/JTC
AVIATION...DK
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