139
FXUS61 KBGM 220415
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1215 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SOMEWHAT COOL AND OCCASIONALLY SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY WITH ENOUGH LIFT
FOR A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN WILL NOSE
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY PROVIDING A BRIEF BREAK FROM ANY
SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD END UP
FAIRLY QUIET BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL, ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. TYPICAL TIMING UNCERTAINTIES ARE PRESENT WITH
PARTICULAR FEATURES POSSIBLY SHIFTING 12-24 HOURS IN EITHER
DIRECTION PAST FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A BIT SATURDAY THEN
AGAIN ON TUESDAY IF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS END UP BEING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD IN THE DAYLIGHT. MOST DAYS WITH SUNSHINE LOOK TO GET
INTO THE 60'S WITH SHOWERY DAYS STUCK IN THE 50'S. LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK FAIRLY UNIFORM AROUND 40. DID INCREASE WINDS
SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY GIVEN AN INVERTED V SIGNATURE WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS. STILL WOULD ONLY EXPECT TOP GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON TO
BE AROUND 20 MPH.
AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH
MID-MORNING TOMORROW. WHILE A GENERAL START TIME OF ABOUT 03Z IS
IN MOST OF THE TERMINALS, VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE EARLY
THIS EVENING, AND THIS CAN DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
TONIGHT, SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
WHILE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER PRIOR TO OR AROUND
DAYBREAK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS IS LOW AS MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE CURRENTLY TOO
MOIST TO START (THE RAP IS DOING THE BEST THUS FAR THIS
EVENING), ALONG WITH THERE BEING A LACK OF RESTRICTIONS
UPSTREAM. AS A RESULT, THE FORECAST DOES LEAN MORE OPTIMISTIC
THAN GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME THROUGH TOMORROW WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED; PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE; LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...DK
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