154
FXUS61 KBGM 220546
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SOMEWHAT COOL AND OCCASIONALLY SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY WITH ENOUGH LIFT
FOR A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN WILL NOSE
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY PROVIDING A BRIEF BREAK FROM ANY
SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD END UP
FAIRLY QUIET BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL, ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. TYPICAL TIMING UNCERTAINTIES ARE PRESENT WITH
PARTICULAR FEATURES POSSIBLY SHIFTING 12-24 HOURS IN EITHER
DIRECTION PAST FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A BIT SATURDAY THEN
AGAIN ON TUESDAY IF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS END UP BEING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD IN THE DAYLIGHT. MOST DAYS WITH SUNSHINE LOOK TO GET
INTO THE 60'S WITH SHOWERY DAYS STUCK IN THE 50'S. LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK FAIRLY UNIFORM AROUND 40. DID INCREASE WINDS
SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY GIVEN AN INVERTED V SIGNATURE WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS. STILL WOULD ONLY EXPECT TOP GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON TO
BE AROUND 20 MPH.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SCATTERED VFR SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE/SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS WHAT WILL CEILINGS DO THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE WAS NOT GREAT WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN TONIGHT, BUT IT SEEMS LIKE THE PAST FEW RUNS HAVE GOTTEN
THEIR ACT TOGETHER AND ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT
CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT IS GOING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST THIS MORNING AND WILL OVERRUN LINGERING COLD AIR FROM THE
RECENT COLD AIR OUTBREAK. THIS WILL CREATE AND INVERSION THAT
WILL TRAP MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND
ALLOW FOR AN MVFR CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AROUND 12-13Z, LASTING
INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, SYR SEEMS TO
BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE NW OF THE INVERSION THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. THE REST OF OUR TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE TO DEAL WITH
MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL BETTER MIXING OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SKIES SCATTER OUT.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED; PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE; LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...JTC
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