126
FXUS61 KBGM 221740
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
140 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND GUSTS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
LOWERED RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BRIEF DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THEN RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NW
FLOW PICKS UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND
20 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
LOWER RH VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY, SO DEVIATED FROM
THE NBM FORECAST FOR DEW POINT TEMPERATURES OVER THAT TIME
FRAME. TOMORROW, MIN RH IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DIP TO NEAR 30%,
HOWEVER, DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL, TOMORROW WILL BE A GOOD DRYING
DAY AND ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE TOO LIMITED IN AREA AND
DURATION DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON, SO AN SPS
WAS NOT NEEDED. ON FRIDAY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING DRIER
AIR, AND MIN RH VALUES COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
PERCENT. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK
ON FRIDAY, BUT IF THEY INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH, THEN AN SPS MAY BE
WARRANTED FOR FIRE WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT. SATURDAY IS LOOKING COOL AND DAMP WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. RIDGING BUILDS
BACK INTO THE NE U.S. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND HIGHS SHOULD
RETURN BACK INTO THE 60S. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA AS A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS. A WARM FRONT IS GOING
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AND WILL
OVERRUN LINGERING COLD AIR FROM THE RECENT COLD AIR OUTBREAK.
THIS WILL CREATE AND INVERSION THAT WILL TRAP MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND ALLOW FOR AN MVFR CLOUD DECK
TO DEVELOP AROUND 12-13Z, LASTING INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE FOOTPRINT OF THIS MVFR DECK HAS SHRUNK A LITTLE
BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
DECK FORMING AT AVP/BGM/ITH THIS MORNING. AT RME, THE DECK
SHOULD BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.
ELM AND SYR LOOK TO MISS OUT ON THE LOWER CEILINGS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MORE DRY AIR NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND WET
GROUND ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY, BGM/ELM/RME ARE SHOWING
STRONG ENOUGH SIGNALS TO PUT MVFR VISBY IN THE TAFS. IFR IS
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. AVP/ITH/SYR ARE SHOWING HINTS OF FOG
CHANCES, BUT THE SIGNAL ISN'T STRONG ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THIS
TAF SET.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED; PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE; LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPK/MWG
AVIATION...JTC
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