900
FXUS61 KBGM 221818
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
218 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND GUSTS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
LOWERED RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BRIEF DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THEN RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NW
FLOW PICKS UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND
20 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
LOWER RH VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY, SO DEVIATED FROM
THE NBM FORECAST FOR DEW POINT TEMPERATURES OVER THAT TIME
FRAME. TOMORROW, MIN RH IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DIP TO NEAR 30%,
HOWEVER, DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL, TOMORROW WILL BE A GOOD DRYING
DAY AND ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE TOO LIMITED IN AREA AND
DURATION DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON, SO AN SPS
WAS NOT NEEDED. ON FRIDAY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING DRIER
AIR, AND MIN RH VALUES COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
PERCENT. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK
ON FRIDAY, BUT IF THEY INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH, THEN AN SPS MAY BE
WARRANTED FOR FIRE WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT. SATURDAY IS LOOKING COOL AND DAMP WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. RIDGING BUILDS
BACK INTO THE NE U.S. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND HIGHS SHOULD
RETURN BACK INTO THE 60S. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WEAK WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NY WILL
BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. VFR
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AREAS OF SCATTERED CUMULUS
AND STRATOCUMULUS FORMING IN THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF THIS
AFTERNOON. CCL AND LCL HEIGHTS SHOULD BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO
KEEP ANY BRIEF BROKEN CEILINGS OUT OF MVFR BUT WITH CONFIDENCE
LOW-MEDIUM, PILOTS SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY ESPECIALLY IF
TRAVELING EASTBOUND WHERE AWC HAS OUTLINED MTNOBSC THROUGH 03Z.
LATER TONIGHT UNDER CLEARING SKIES, THERE ARE SIGNALS
INDICATING RESTRICTIVE VISIBILITIES FORMING IN MIST/FOG...BUT
THE TRENDS HAVE BEEN DECLINING. HAVE BACKED OFF THE TYPICAL FOG
TERMINALS TO JUST TEMPORARY FLUCTUATIONS INTO MVFR BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SCATTERED CIRRUS IS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT INTO TONIGHT BEFORE MIXING BACK UP ON
THURSDAY TO 10-15 KTS.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY
AND AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE INTO THE
NIGHT; LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR. BECOMING WINDY ON MONDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPK/MWG
AVIATION...JAB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page