704
FXUS61 KBGM 230606
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
206 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE AND COOLED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRIER DAYS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONDITIONS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE SPREAD ON FRIDAY.
2) TRENDING COLDER AND WETTER ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME WET SNOW.
3) NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER CURRENTLY EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVELY
THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION ON THE DRIER SIDE
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, HIGHS SHOULD
GET INTO THE 60'S AFTER TEMPERATURES START OFF AROUND 40.
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS ARE MODELED ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT, WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN THE NBM GUIDANCE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. MODELED INVERTED V SOUNDINGS SHOW
UP AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE AIRMASS DRYING OUT FURTHER,
LIKELY MORE THAN WHAT NBM GUIDANCE HAS. HOWEVER, MOMENTUM
TRANSFER SHOWS THE TOP GUSTS TO BE A BIT LOWER FRIDAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO COORDINATE WITH STATE AND LOCAL PARTNERS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH REGARDS TO FIRE SPREAD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY. SHOWER COVERAGE CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE
WIDESPREAD FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THE MAJORITY OF MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATES THE HIGHS MAYBE BEFORE SUNRISE
FOR MOST OF THE REGION IN THE 40'S. EVAPORATIONAL AND DYNAMICAL
COOLING WOULD THEN KEEP VALUES STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL DURING THE
DAY. FURTHER NORTH AWAY FROM THE STEADIER RAIN SOME SPOTS MAY
GET INTO THE 50'S. ENOUGH COOLING MAY OCCUR FOR SNOW TO MIX IN
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. THE 00Z NAM
APPEARS TO BE A SNOWY OUTLIER WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOT SUGGESTING
ANY ACCUMULATION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
IMPROVING AND WARMING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH SOME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.
VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED TONIGHT IN PARTS OF THE AREA, MAINLY
THE CATSKILLS, THE DELAWARE RIVER BASIN INTO FAR NE PA, AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY IN BROOME COUNTY WHERE RAIN OCCURRED
YESTERDAY EVENING. SOME PATCHY, MAINLY MVFR FOG/MIST COULD STILL
IMPACT ELM IN THE PREDAWN HOURS TO AROUND SUNRISE; BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE IN THIS OCCURRING. SINCE ELM DID
NOT SEE RAIN YESTERDAY EVENING, THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY
IFR OR LOWER FOG WOULD NOT BE LIKELY TO DEVELOP HERE.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED ALL DAY THURSDAY, RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD IN THE EVENING.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 15-16Z THURSDAY
WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED AT MOST OF OUR
TAF SITES. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY
AND AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE INTO THE
NIGHT; LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR. BECOMING WINDY ON MONDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...MJM/MWG
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