948
FXUS61 KBGM 231053
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
653 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AS
THE ABUNDANT SPRING SUNSHINE SHOULD ACT TO RAISE READINGS ABOVE
THE BLENDED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ALSO INCREASED NORTH WINDS A FEW
MPH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONG, DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
EXPECTED; WINDS LOOK TO GUSTS UP AROUND 20 MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRIER DAYS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONDITIONS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE SPREAD ON FRIDAY.
2) TRENDING COLDER AND WETTER ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME WET SNOW.
3) NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER CURRENTLY EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVELY
THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION ON THE DRIER SIDE
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, HIGHS SHOULD
GET INTO THE 60'S AFTER TEMPERATURES START OFF AROUND 40.
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS ARE MODELED ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT, WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN THE NBM GUIDANCE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. MODELED INVERTED V SOUNDINGS SHOW
UP AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE AIRMASS DRYING OUT FURTHER,
LIKELY MORE THAN WHAT NBM GUIDANCE HAS. HOWEVER, MOMENTUM
TRANSFER SHOWS THE TOP GUSTS TO BE A BIT LOWER FRIDAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO COORDINATE WITH STATE AND LOCAL PARTNERS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH REGARDS TO FIRE SPREAD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY. SHOWER COVERAGE CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE
WIDESPREAD FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THE MAJORITY OF MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATES THE HIGHS MAYBE BEFORE SUNRISE
FOR MOST OF THE REGION IN THE 40'S. EVAPORATIONAL AND DYNAMICAL
COOLING WOULD THEN KEEP VALUES STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL DURING THE
DAY. FURTHER NORTH AWAY FROM THE STEADIER RAIN SOME SPOTS MAY
GET INTO THE 50'S. ENOUGH COOLING MAY OCCUR FOR SNOW TO MIX IN
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. THE 00Z NAM
APPEARS TO BE A SNOWY OUTLIER WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOT SUGGESTING
ANY ACCUMULATION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
IMPROVING AND WARMING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH SOME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.
VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY THE CATSKILLS, NORTHEAST PA AND THE SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE NY SOUTHERN TIER WHERE RAIN OCCURRED
YESTERDAY EVENING. SOME PATCHY, MAINLY MVFR FOG/MIST COULD STILL
IMPACT ELM/BGM/ITH OR AVP THROUGH 12-13Z EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS AS THE FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED ALL DAY THURSDAY, RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD TONIGHT.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 15-16Z TODAY WITH
A FEW WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED AT MOST OF OUR TAF
SITES. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY
AND AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE INTO THE
NIGHT; LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR. BECOMING WINDY ON MONDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJM/MWG
AVIATION...MJM/MWG
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