783
FXUS61 KBGM 241730
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
130 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN STEUBEN COUNTY. ADDED IN THUNDER TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.
2) A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS SATURDAY,
PERHAPS MIXING WITH SOME WET SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM.
3) DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, THEN SEVERAL
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION WITH MIXING BRINGING
DOWN PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO THE SURFACE. WINDS DO LOOK A BIT
LIGHTER GIVEN A DECREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT. GIVEN PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE, MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD GET INTO THE 60'S TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
OUR NBM GUIDANCE IS BETTER HANDLING A LOCALIZED COOLING POCKET
SATURDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WITH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA ONLY SEEING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40'S. ENOUGH DYNAMICAL AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING MAY
OCCUR FOR SOME OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN NE PA AND THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW AT TIMES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MOST OF THE MODELING IS ONLY SUGGESTING A
BRIEF DURATION OF MIX OR SNOW, COUPLED WITH A WARM GROUND
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER US. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE LATEST INDICATIONS FROM ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA STARTING SOMETIME ON
TUESDAY, LEANING MORE TOWARD THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS.
SOME SHOWERS LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AT THIS
TIMEFRAME, SO THE FORECAST COULD CHANGE SOME WITH LATER UPDATES.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR UNTIL AT LEAST 09Z SATURDAY. THEN EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING POP-UP SHOWERS PRIOR TO 06Z BUT WITH
COVERAGE QUITE SCATTERED, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE RAIN
AT ANY ONE TERMINAL PRIOR TO THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
EXPECTED. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY FALL FROM VFR TO IFR BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AT AVP, BGM, ELM, AND ITH. SYR AND RME WILL BE
AT THE EDGE OF ANY CEILING RESTRICTIONS BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH THE RAIN, VISIBILITIES WILL
ALSO BE REDUCED.
THERE ARE SOME GUSTS BEING OBSERVED IN THE REGION THOUGH
GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING TO PICK UP ON THIS. GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS
ARE EXPECTED AT AVP, BGM, AND ELM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING BEFORE
WINDS SETTLE OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AS THE RAIN
APPROACHES, WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.
IFR OR LOWER LIKELY AT ITH, ELM, BGM AND AVP AT TIMES.
SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
HUMIDITY LEVELS ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 IN NEW YORK,
INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER, WINDS
WILL BE QUITE LIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING OUR WEATHER.
A WETTING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG/MJM/MWG
AVIATION...BTL
FIRE WEATHER...BJG/MDP
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