071
FXUS61 KBGM 250009
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
809 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS FOR SATURDAY HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY, BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY,
PERHAPS MIXING WITH SOME WET SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS SATURDAY NIGHT.
2) DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, THEN SEVERAL
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY,
WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES
(HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S). SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS MAY MIX WITH WET SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE
RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY EVENING, BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
RAINFALL TOTALS ON SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 1.00"-1.25" FOR NORTHEAST PA TO AS FAR NORTH AS THE
FINGER LAKES REGION, WITH LOWER AMOUNTS (MOSTLY 0.50" OR LESS)
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO
TREND SLIGHTLY SLOWER, WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS STARTING LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY OR EVEN
TUESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH VARIABLE WINDS THAT
BECOME MORE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AROUND 09-10Z AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. WHILE HIGH RES. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POP- UP
SHOWERS STARTING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z, RESTRICTIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE MORE WIDESPREAD, STEADIER RAINFALL MOVES
INTO MOST TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED FIRST BEFORE CEILINGS GRADUALLY FALL
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN
IFR CIGS AT ITH, ELM AND BGM. SYR AND RME WILL BE AT THE EDGE OF
ANY CEILING RESTRICTIONS BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.
IFR OR LOWER LIKELY AT ITH, ELM, BGM AND AVP AT TIMES.
SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG
AVIATION...BTL/DK
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