001
FXUS61 KBGM 250437
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1237 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS FOR SATURDAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
PERHAPS MIXING WITH SOME WET SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS SATURDAY NIGHT.
2) DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. SEVERAL SYSTEMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE REGION LOOK TO OCCUR
BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE
ACROSS THE REGIONS MOISTURE IS LIFTED ALONG A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO EVAPORATIONAL AND DYNAMICAL COOLING
KEEPING TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE 40'S. TEMPERATURES AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NEPA LOCATIONS NEAR
AND THE NY THRUWAY LOOK TO BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SHOWERS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO TREND HIGHER AS WELL. MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE A FAIRLY ROBUST AREA OF MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAINFALL
NOW FROM THE FINGER LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NEPA.
EVENTHOUGH FORECASTED TOTALS HAVE INCREASED, FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY SLOW TO CLEAR OUT ON
SUNDAY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND WARMER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO
TREND SLIGHTLY SLOWER, WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS STARTING LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY OR EVEN
TUESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH VARIABLE WINDS THAT
BECOME MORE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AROUND 09-10Z AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. WHILE HIGH RES. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POP- UP
SHOWERS STARTING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z, RESTRICTIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE MORE WIDESPREAD, STEADIER RAINFALL MOVES
INTO MOST TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED FIRST BEFORE CEILINGS GRADUALLY FALL
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN
IFR CIGS AT ITH, ELM AND BGM. SYR AND RME WILL BE AT THE EDGE OF
ANY CEILING RESTRICTIONS BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.
IFR OR LOWER LIKELY AT ITH, ELM, BGM AND AVP AT TIMES.
SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG/MWG
AVIATION...BTL/DK
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