173
FXUS61 KBGM 250548
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
148 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS FOR SATURDAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
PERHAPS MIXING WITH SOME WET SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS SATURDAY NIGHT.
2) DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. SEVERAL SYSTEMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE REGION LOOK TO OCCUR
BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE
ACROSS THE REGIONS MOISTURE IS LIFTED ALONG A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO EVAPORATIONAL AND DYNAMICAL COOLING
KEEPING TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE 40'S. TEMPERATURES AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NEPA LOCATIONS NEAR
AND THE NY THRUWAY LOOK TO BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SHOWERS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO TREND HIGHER AS WELL. MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE A FAIRLY ROBUST AREA OF MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAINFALL
NOW FROM THE FINGER LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NEPA.
EVENTHOUGH FORECASTED TOTALS HAVE INCREASED, FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY SLOW TO CLEAR OUT ON
SUNDAY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND WARMER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO
TREND SLIGHTLY SLOWER, WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS STARTING LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY OR EVEN
TUESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY. RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AROUND
09-10Z, SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT RESTRICTIONS HOLD OFF
UNTIL STEADIER RAIN ARRIVED 10-14Z. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
VISIBILITIES DEVELOP FIRST, WITH CEILINGS LOWERING LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS ARE AT ITH,
ELM AND BGM. SYR AND RME WILL BE AT THE EDGE OF ANY CEILING
RESTRICTIONS BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.
IFR OR LOWER LIKELY AT ITH, ELM, BGM AND AVP AT TIMES.
SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG/MWG
AVIATION...DK/ES
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