813
FXUS61 KBGM 251032
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
632 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS FOR SATURDAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
PERHAPS MIXING WITH SOME WET SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS SATURDAY NIGHT.
2) DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. SEVERAL SYSTEMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE REGION LOOK TO OCCUR
BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE
ACROSS THE REGIONS MOISTURE IS LIFTED ALONG A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO EVAPORATIONAL AND DYNAMICAL COOLING
KEEPING TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE 40'S. TEMPERATURES AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NEPA LOCATIONS NEAR
AND THE NY THRUWAY LOOK TO BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SHOWERS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO TREND HIGHER AS WELL. MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE A FAIRLY ROBUST AREA OF MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAINFALL
NOW FROM THE FINGER LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NEPA.
EVENTHOUGH FORECASTED TOTALS HAVE INCREASED, FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY SLOW TO CLEAR OUT ON
SUNDAY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND WARMER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO
TREND SLIGHTLY SLOWER, WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS STARTING LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY OR EVEN
TUESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RAIN WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING. WHILE CONDITIONS HAVE
REMAINED VFR SO FAR THIS MORNING, STEADIER SHOWERS WILL BRING
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR VISIBILITIES FIRST, FOLLOWED BY LOWERING
CEILINGS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY MID TO LATE MORNINING, WITH GUSTS OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.
IFR OR LOWER LIKELY AT ITH, ELM, BGM AND AVP AT TIMES.
SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG/MWG
AVIATION...ES
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