012
FXUS61 KBGM 260604
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
204 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN IS MOVING OUR FASTER EARLY THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY SOME
PATCHY FOG AND LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH MID MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH
PATCHY FROST. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TUESDAY ON JUST HOW FAST ANY
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG AN INCOMING
FRONT FROM THE WEST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN SHOWERS END BEFORE DAYBREAK THIS MORNING, WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING CHILLY OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY FROST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
2) A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE CENTER BRINGS BETTER CHANCES
FOR A WETTING, SOAKING RAINFALL LATER ON WEDNESDAY.
3) UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPINS
OVERHEAD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS REGION,
AND EVEN THESE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. LINGERING
CLOUDS AND EVEN PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE AMPLE LEVELS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND WILL BEGIN TO DRY
THINGS OUT WITH CLOUDS DECREASING FROM NE TO SW THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA. THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH 60-65 FOR
HIGHS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A 1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG
WITH CLEAR SKIES. WITH THESE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
UNDERCUT NBM GUIDANCE BY 1-2 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ADDED IN AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY FROST INTO
THE FORECAST AS WELL. THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT OFFICIALLY KICKED
OFF JUST YET, BUT BEING SO CLOSE (SEVERAL COUNTIES OFFICIALLY START
ON MAY 1ST, THE REST ON MAY 11TH) DECIDED IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO
MAKE SURE THIS FROST POTENTIAL WAS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. AFTER
THE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY TO MID MORNING MONDAY EXPECT SUNNY SKIES
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER
FOR MONDAY, NOW LOOKING TO REACH THE MID-60S TO LOW 70S. DEW POINTS
WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON, AS PLENTY OF DRY AIR
IS PRESENT IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS; THIS WILL LEAD TO MIN RH
VALUES REACHING AT LEAST 30-35%, BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 5 MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 8-20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS OUT AHEAD THE NEXT INCOMING FRONT. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE RUNNING INTO A REMNANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 500MB
AND ALSO AMPLE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. IT SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY
IN THE MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF I-81, BUT THEN CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BY MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. AN AREA
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. DID LOWER POPS COMPARED TO THE
NBM GUIDANCE DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE. EVENTUALLY A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ROLL ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
UNDER FIVE-HUNDRETHS OF AND INCH THROUGH SUNSET. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VERY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE MILD WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.
ANOTHER LOW WITH MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT THEN MOVES IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
MUCH HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF RAIN, AND HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS OF A HALF
INCH OR MORE TO THE REGION BY THE TIME IT TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS TIMEFRAME REMAINS MILD WITH HIGHS 60 TO 65 WEDNESDAY,
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID-40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL PRESS
THROUGH THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED, BLOCKY,
NEGATIVE NAO WEATHER PATTERN. THIS TIME PERIOD WILL FEATURE
SHORTWAVES AND DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA AT DIFFERENT
TIMES. IT WON'T BE RAINING OR PRECIPITATING THE ENTIRE TIME, BUT
EACH DAY WILL FEATURE CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM -2 TO -6C THIS ENTIRE TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM 45-55 DEGREES OVER THE REGION EACH DAY, WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S EACH NIGHT. WITH THESE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND DOWN TO
THE SURFACE IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT SOME SNOWFLAKES MIX IN WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DUE TO SATURATED CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS, FOG WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS, THOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING OF FOG AND HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE. SKIES WILL THEN
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 12Z OR SHORTLY AFTER, SO CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z AT ALL TERMINALS. THERE ARE SOME
GUIDANCE THAT KEEP CLOUDS AROUND LONGER, AND IF THAT DOES HAPPEN,
THEN CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. DESPITE WINDS BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SPEEDS WILL STAY AT 5 KTS OR
LESS.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED; FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND AT
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...BTL/ES
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