624
FXUS61 KBGM 271707
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
107 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE NORMALLY COLDER
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE WELL DOWN
INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY,
REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AREAWIDE. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY
IN THE MORNING BEFORE A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES
HEADS EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON, POPS ARE ONLY IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY EAST OF I-81, WHERE IT IS QUESTIONABLE
IF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. WEDNESDAY'S TEMPERATURES ARE
TRENDING A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT
DRY IN THE MORNING AND EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY BRINGING
CHILLY EARLY MORNING LOWS, AREAS OF FROST AND VALLEY FOG. DRY,
MILD AND QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING.
2) A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY, BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO PUSH EAST OF
I-81. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE CENTER BRINGS BETTER CHANCES FOR A
WETTING, SOAKING RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. MUCH COOLER WEATHER MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVERHEAD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AREAS OF FOG AND FROST WILL BE LIKELY IN
THE RIVER AND CREEK VALLEYS THROUGH 8-9 AM. FOG BURNS OFF BY THE
MID MORNING HOURS AND THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
ONLY CHANGES FROM NBM WERE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. MIN
RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE LOW 30S PERCENT AND
POSSIBLY BELOW 30% IN SOME AREAS, BUT DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND
LIGHT WINDS TODAY THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 8-20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS OUT AHEAD THE NEXT INCOMING FRONT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NY AND
THIS WILL BE TOUGH FOR INCOMING MOISTURE TO PENETRATE. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BY MIDDAY. SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO REACH INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION, BUT NOT SURE
IF ANY MEASURABLE MOISTURE IS GOING TO MAKE IT EAST OF I-81.
THERE MAY JUST BE A SHORT PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY, WITH THE
SOUTH WIND BOOSTING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID-60S.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MUCH MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, THEN CONTINUE WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL THEN SETTLE OVER
THE REGION AND POSSIBLY REMAIN THERE RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL FEATURE SHORTWAVES AND DISTURBANCES
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA AT DIFFERENT TIMES WITH COOL AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. IT WON'T BE RAINING OR PRECIPITATING THE
ENTIRE TIME, BUT EACH DAY WILL FEATURE CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM -2 TO -6C THIS ENTIRE
TIMEFRAME AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES
START FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MAY 1ST AND UNFORTUNATELY THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF MAY COULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT TO SEE IF IT WILL FAVOR FROST FORMATION.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AT ELM AND SYR TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD, AND HAS BEEN INCLUDED. MODEL GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF LLWS AT ITH, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED; LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND FOG
POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND AT
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...KL
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