062
FXUS61 KBGM 271833
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
233 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED WINDS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW TO INCREASE THEM ACROSS THE
WESTERN FINGER LAKES. WIND DIRECTIONS ALOFT ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME DOWNSLOPING, MIXING SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO THE SURFACE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BACK TO BACK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, AND WINDY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
2) A COOL AIR MASS SETTLES INTO PLACE LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND LEADING TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF
FROST AND FREEZES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TODAY HAS LEAD TO A BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON
WITH LIGHT WINDS, LOW DEW POINTS, AND SUNNY SKIES. HIGH CLOUDS
ARE STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST, WITH SKY COVER EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT, HELPING KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN
THIS MORNING. THE CATSKILLS INTO SULLIVAN AND PIKE COUNTY MAY
STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FROST AS THE CLOUDS DONT MOVE IN TILL LATE
WITH PLENTY OF TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. 850-MB WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A LOW LEVEL JET FORMS IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE WESTERN
FINGER LAKES REGION COULD SEE SOME ENHANCED WINDS LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW MORNING THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING THAT MAY HELP MIX
DOWN SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT, WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE WILL STILL SEE GUSTY WINDS BUT LIKELY STAY
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE.
TOMORROW, DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO BE
HEAVY SO WHILE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IS HIGH, ESPECIALLY
WEST OF I-81, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF I-81. THIS FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HELPS SATURATE THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS LOW ORIGINATES IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PICKS
UP SOME GULF MOISTURE AS IT TRACKS INTO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET UP TO AROUND AN INCH, WITH THE LOW
MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY FAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE DURATION OF THE HEAVIER RAIN. STILL, AN INCH OR
SO OF RAIN IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND WITH GREENUP
STILL PROGRESSING AND SOIL MOISTURE IS STILL HIGH FROM THE
WEEKEND RAIN, RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED. RIGHT NOW, RAINFALL IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO GET FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS AND
WITH THE SHORT DURATION, RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
FLOOD STAGES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, A
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH COLD NORTHERLY
AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING BUT DOES NOT REALLY GET BELOW -5C TO SUPPORT SNOW. DAY
TIME HIGHS WILL STILL LIKELY GET INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S
WITH THE STRONG SOLAR HEATING AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS
HEATING MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SO ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH THE
GROWING SEASON STARTING FOR NEPA AND THE FINGER LAKES REGION MAY
1ST. ONE THING THAT MAY HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE
WARMER IS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND ANY
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS COULD HELP BOOST THE SURFACE DEW POINTS.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE FOG FORMATION AND MAY KEEP LOWS JUST
ABOVE FREEZING. IF HIGH PRESSURE ENDS UP BUILDING IN ANY NIGHT
BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE OF A FROST OR A FREEZE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AT ELM AND SYR TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD, AND HAS BEEN INCLUDED. MODEL GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF LLWS AT ITH, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED; LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND FOG
POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND AT
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NYZ015-022.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...KL
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