704
FXUS61 KBGM 140550
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
150 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE EXPANDED IN SPACIAL AND TEMPORAL
COVERAGE THURSDAY WITH THE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION. EARLY
NEXT WEEK HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE COORDINATED WITH WPC TO LOWER
THEM TO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS CONSIDERING
INCREASE IN POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD FRONT FINISHES MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING, ENDING THE
THREAT OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS. COOL WEATHER AND WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
2) WARM UP BEGINS THIS WEEKEND WITH A LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT,
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND PERHAPS A FEW AREAS TO
REACH THE 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES 1...
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT WITH SMALL HAIL, SOME
MEASURED GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH, AND EVEN SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE
IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION SUGGESTIVE OF BORDERLINE SEVERE GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH. HOWEVER, THE STORMS HAVE PROGRESSED INTO MORE
STABLE AIR, AND WELL AFTER DAYTIME HEATING, SO THEY WILL BE SUB-
SEVERE THE REST OF THIS EVENING WHILE TREKKING EAST OF
INTERSTATE 81. THEY WILL STILL GENERATE SOME LIGHTNING, AND
GUSTS OF 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST REMAINING
CELLS.
ONCE THE FRONT IS THROUGH, A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS NEAR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THIS LOW DEEPENS, WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE KEEPS CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS AROUND TOMORROW
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IN THE CATSKILLS
COULD LEAD TO A FEW AREAS TO GET NEAR AN INCH OF RAIN THOUGH
MOST OF THE AREA WILL JUST SEE INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE EXPANDED THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO COVER THIS WRAP AROUND PRECIP.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL WEEKS WILL BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND WITH FLOW BECOMING
MORE ZONAL AND EVEN SOME RIDGING BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. 850
MB TEMPERATURES GO FROM AROUND FREEZING UP TO OVER 10C BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVEN APPROACHING 20C MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK AND PERHAPS
SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE WYOMING VALLEY. RH FIELDS ALOFT
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE MORE SATURATED SO CLOUDS ARE UNCERTAIN SO
DECIDED TO BACK OFF FROM ORIGINAL FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND DROPPED THEM 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE ON THE DRIER SIDE SO DESPITE THE MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES, DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S
HELPING TO KEEP HEAT INDICES IN CHECK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VERY TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST, AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING. POST-
FRONTAL LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE AREA. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER, IN ANY BRIEF
POCKETS OF CLEARING, FOG/MIST HAS BRIEFLY SETTLED IN, BUT THEN
QUICKLY DISSIPATES AS SOON AS CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN. LONG STORY
SHORT, EXPECTING MOST RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING TO BE MVFR TO
FUEL ALTERNATE FROM LOW CEILINGS, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR
VISBY RESTRICTIONS IF FOG MANAGES TO SNEAK BACK IN. THAT BEING
SAID, CONFIDENCE IN SEEING IFR FOG AT KELM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASED DUE TO EXPANDING CLOUD COVER ON SATELLITE AND
THEREFORE IFR RESTRICTIONS WERE REMOVED FROM THE TAF THERE.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE DAY, WITH
KAVP LIKELY BEING THE EXCEPTION (WHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS HAS EARLY AS THE MID-MORNING).
CEILINGS LOWER ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD FUEL
ALTERNATE CEILINGS AND LIKELY IFR AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR
KAVP.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR; SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG/MDP
AVIATION...BJG
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