437
FXUS61 KBGM 141838
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
238 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND AND
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THIS WEEKEND WILL
FEATURE A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND.
2) VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES 1...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, ANOTHER
COOL BUT NOT AS COOL DAY WITH TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT NEAR 60.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70'S AND PERHAPS 80 BOTH
DAYS. A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
OUR NBM GUIDANCE HAS A NATIONWIDE DOCUMENTED BIAS WITH
TEMPERATURES BEING TOO WARM THIS TRANSITIONAL SEASON. IN
COORDINATION WITH WPC, HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPED FROM THE
NBM A FEW DEGREES TO BE CLOSER TO CONSALL AND THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD ALSO SUGGEST HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE SAME 80'S TO PERHAPS 90 IN A FEW
VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS KEEPS VALUES IN CNY BELOW THE HEAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLD WITH OUTLIER NBM GUIDANCE GOING AT OR JUST
ABOVE 95 DEGREES FOR THE HEAT INDEX TUESDAY.
WHILE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, A COLD
FRONT IS MODELED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND THE WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME. THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS IF IT LINES UP WITH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A POST-FRONTAL LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVERHEAD WHILE A
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST INTO
TOMORROW. MAINLY MVFR/FUEL-ALT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO IFR LEVELS LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT AVP. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF DRIZZLE INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, BUT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN
NATURE.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY START TO IMPROVE AS
WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR; SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR; A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...DK
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