796
FXUS61 KBGM 150527
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
127 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES
TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THIS WEEKEND WILL
FEATURE A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND.
2) VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES 1...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST WILL ROTATE AND LIFT
NORTH AND OUT OF THE REGION LATER TODAY. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL BRING ONE FINAL COOL DAY BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH MOST PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN LIGHT. SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON.
THE OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS THIS WEEKEND AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION, BRINGING A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS. SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DESPITE THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ONLY EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST
INCREASES CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE DAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING,
BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY REACHING 90 DEGREES IN A FEW
VALLEY LOCATIONS. ECMWF AND CONSALL GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WHILE THE NBM TRENDS WARMER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY LOWER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NBM RUNNING TOO
WARM DURING SEASONAL TRANSITION, KEEPING CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE, MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AROUND WEDNESDAY, THOUGH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THIS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER OVERHEAD WHILE A
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST INTO
TOMORROW. MAINLY MVFR/FUEL-ALT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
IFR LEVELS INTO THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT AVP.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF DRIZZLE INTO TOMORROW MORNING, BUT MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW, AND
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY START TO IMPROVE AS WELL. WINDS
WILL REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR; SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR; A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ES
AVIATION...KL
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