018
FXUS61 KBGM 151843
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
243 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES
TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NBM CONTINUES TO DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND IS GETTING MORE IN LINE WITH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND VALUES FROM MODELED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD GET MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE 80'S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE SOME ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES ARE PRESENT
WITH TIMING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED ON
WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE LOOK PRESENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. COVERAGE LOOKS MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TUESDAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AND WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES TREND
COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SLOW CLEARING.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A BROKEN DECK OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUES TO LINGER
AROUND MOST OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PUSHES EASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
THE EVENING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER
TOMORROW MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS EXPECTED INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER
18Z.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR; SMALL CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR, BUT AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ES/MWG
AVIATION...DK
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