839
FXUS61 KBGM 152356
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
756 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES
TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NBM CONTINUES TO DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND IS GETTING MORE IN LINE WITH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND VALUES FROM MODELED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD GET MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE 80'S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE SOME ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES ARE PRESENT
WITH TIMING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED ON
WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE LOOK PRESENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. COVERAGE LOOKS MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TUESDAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AND WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES TREND
COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SLOW CLEARING.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR AT ELM FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO BEFORE SUNRISE, BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 6Z
AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT FOG FORMATION EARLY IN THE
MORNING. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TOMORROW MORNING WITH
GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY
STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR; SMALL CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR, BUT AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ES/MWG
AVIATION...DK/MPK
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