640
FXUS61 KBGM 160457
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1257 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR NBM SEASONAL BIAS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS TO WRAP UP NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ALLOWING CLOUDS TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION AND AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES IN THIS AFTERNOON, THERE WILL
BE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS, MOSTLY ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL NY, BUT ANY SHOWERS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
MAKING IT EAST OF I81.
BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH WARM
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP INTO 80S ON SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NBM
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SURROUNDING GUIDANCE,
THEREFORE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A
FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED
TUESDAY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH, BUT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
TURN MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. HOW
STRONG THE INSTABILITY WILL BE IS STILL SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE DUE TO
TIMING DIFFERENCES OF FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT IF EVERYTHING ALIGNS,
CAN'T RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR AT ELM FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO BEFORE SUNRISE, BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 6Z
AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT FOG FORMATION EARLY IN THE
MORNING. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TOMORROW MORNING WITH
GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY
STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR; SMALL CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR, BUT AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ES
AVIATION...DK/MPK
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