058
FXUS61 KBGM 161355
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
955 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR NBM SEASONAL BIAS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS TO WRAP UP NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ALLOWING CLOUDS TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION AND AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES IN THIS AFTERNOON, THERE WILL
BE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS, MOSTLY ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL NY, BUT ANY SHOWERS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
MAKING IT EAST OF I81.
BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH WARM
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP INTO 80S ON SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NBM
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SURROUNDING GUIDANCE,
THEREFORE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A
FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED
TUESDAY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH, BUT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
TURN MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. HOW
STRONG THE INSTABILITY WILL BE IS STILL SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE DUE TO
TIMING DIFFERENCES OF FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT IF EVERYTHING ALIGNS,
CAN'T RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SOME VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED, MAINLY IMPACTING RME AND ELM. RME
SHOWS MORE CONSISTENT IMPROVEMENT THAN ELM, BUT WITH LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING, THIS SHOULD HELP MIX
OUT THE FOG SOON AFTER 12Z. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATER
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z.
WITH AN APPROACHING SYSTEM, A FEW TERMINALS ARE TRENDING
MVFR/FUEL ALT CIGS AFTER 00Z TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR; SMALL CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR, BUT AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ES
AVIATION...KL
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