700
FXUS61 KBGM 161731
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
131 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR NBM SEASONAL BIAS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS TO WRAP UP NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ALLOWING CLOUDS TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION AND AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES IN THIS AFTERNOON, THERE WILL
BE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS, MOSTLY ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL NY, BUT ANY SHOWERS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
MAKING IT EAST OF I81.
BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH WARM
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP INTO 80S ON SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NBM
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SURROUNDING GUIDANCE,
THEREFORE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A
FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED
TUESDAY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH, BUT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
TURN MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. HOW
STRONG THE INSTABILITY WILL BE IS STILL SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE DUE TO
TIMING DIFFERENCES OF FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT IF EVERYTHING ALIGNS,
CAN'T RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND WITH THEM,
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO FALL OVER THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS. SYR
AND RME WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WHILE ALL OTHER
TERMINALS, INCLUDING AVP, MAY SEE A PASSING SHOWER AFTER 22Z.
MVFR TO FUEL ALT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT RME, SYR, ITH, AND
BGM OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWING THE RAIN, FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
SYR AND RME. MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD ALSO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AT ELM BUT THAT WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON IF RAIN DOES FALL
THERE. GIVEN THAT MOST GUIDANCE DO NOT FAVOR FOG AT ELM,
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. ALL TERMINALS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z SUNDAY.
WINDS ARE A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS
CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE CALMING SOME
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR; MORNING VALLEY FOG
POSSIBLE AND AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS - BOTH OF
WHICH COULD RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR, BUT AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ES
AVIATION...BTL
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