116
FXUS61 KBGM 171745
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
145 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE
IN THE COMING DAYS LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. POTENTIAL FOR SOME AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS TO WRAP UP
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY, BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
OVERALL QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS
GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL CLEARING LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS ARE FORECASTED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH NBM TEMPERATURES
TRENDING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THIS UPDATE. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
UPDATES, TEMPERATURES WERE STILL NUDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER TODAY AS
WELL AS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST IF THE REGION OVER BERMUDA EARLY
THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING MORE
SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING MILD IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE UPPER 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MAKING HUMIDITY
INCREASINGLY NOTICEABLE.
THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ECMWF SHOWS AN EML PLUME MOVING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH IS REFLECTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALONG WITH A CAP IN PLACE. SOME
FORM OF FORCING WOULD LIKELY BE NEEDED TO BREAK THE CAP AND TAP
INTO THE INSTABILITY. BY TUESDAY, THE CAP IS NO LONGER SHOWN IN
PLACE, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IF A SHORTWAVE WERE TO MOVE THROUGH
ALONG THE WARM FRONT. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW FAVORABLE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS, HOWEVER SOUNDINGS ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, SO THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS TO
BE WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS UPDATE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE
FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO TIMING, THE BEST INSTABILITY SEEMS
TO BE SETTING UP ACROSS NE PA THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF NY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. IF EVERYTHING CAN
COME TOGETHER, SOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T
BE RULED OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY BE
A QUICK POP UP SHOWER NEAR ELM/BGM LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. IF A SHOWER DID MOVE OVER A TERMINAL, VERY BRIEF MVFR
VISBY SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACT.
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY HINTING AT SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. FROM AROUND 03-06Z,
SKIES LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE MOSTLY CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S, THE TEMP MAY DROP QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE PATCHY FOG AT ELM/ITH/SYR/RME. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS VERY LOW AS THE TIMEFRAME TO GET THE FOG
DEVELOPING IS QUITE SHORT, AND WE EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP IN THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT, MIXING OUT ANY SATURATION THAT
MAY OCCUR AT THE SURFACE. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP, IT WOULD MORE
THAN LIKELY BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS GIVEN THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR; SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTION POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR, BUT AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DK/ES
AVIATION...JTC
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