812
FXUS61 KBGM 172140
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
540 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OUR MAIN
FEATURE EARLY THIS WEEK LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NORTH OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NY IS EXPECTED TO DIP A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NY BEFORE RETREATING
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. THIS FRONT CAN LEAD TO A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY.
AS THE FRONT RETREATS, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED AROUND
BERMUDA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS NORTHWARD LEADING TO STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING DEW POINTS. ALL THIS PUT TOGETHER
WILL GIVE US A TASTE OF SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS, THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGHS TOMORROW AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S AREA-WIDE AND CAN BE RECORD-CHALLENGING. THE RECORD
HIGH FOR BOTH DAYS AT KBGM IS 87, KAVP'S RECORD HIGHS ARE 93
TOMORROW AND 92 TUESDAY, AND FOR KSYR THE RECORD HIGHS ARE 90
AND 92 RESPECTIVELY. NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO WARM
COMPARED TO NEARLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE DUE TO A KNOWN SEASONAL
BIAS, SO THE TREND TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT FROM THE MODEL
BLEND WAS CONTINUED, BUT HIGHS WERE KEPT NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR
TEMPERATURES TO OVERACHIEVE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THOSE
TEMPERATURES IS A BIT MIXED. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TOMORROW AND
TUESDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AROUND
THE RIDGE MOVE THROUGH, WHICH COULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
BEING HELD BACK SLIGHTLY. IF LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPS, TEMPERATURES COULD POTENTIALLY OVERACHIEVE, AND THAT
COULD BE THE CASE ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW A CAP IN PLACE.
AS MENTIONED, DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE, REACHING THE LOW
TO MID 60S TOMORROW AND TUESDAY, WITH SOME SPOTS EVEN REACHING
THE UPPER 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SO THE HUMIDITY WILL BE
NOTICEABLE. SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE INCREASE DEW POINTS, ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
SO THIS IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
AS OF NOW, THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FROM MIDDAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT TIMING, THE BEST INSTABILITY SEEMS TO
BE SETTING UP ACROSS NE PA THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF NY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WHERE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S, WHILE NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR
RETURNS TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION THROUGH THE TUG HILL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. IF EVERYTHING CAN COME
TOGETHER, SOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. SO FAR DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE
(WITH HIGHER VALUES FROM THE NAM), ABOUT 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF
SHEAR AND DECENT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THIS AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE 60S IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT ELM/ITH/SYR/RME COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR - IFR FOG
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS, BUT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE IS LOW
AT THIS POINT, SO IT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST. FROM AROUND
03-06Z, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOSTLY CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S, IF THE TEMPERATURE CAN
DROP QUICKLY ENOUGH, THEN SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG COULD OCCUR, BUT
AS MENTIONED, THIS PROBABILITY IS LOW AND WILL PICK UP IN THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, MIXING OUT
ANY SATURATION THAT MAY OCCUR AT THE SURFACE.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR; SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTION POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR, BUT AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DK
AVIATION...JTC/MPK
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