442
FXUS61 KBGM 180537
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
137 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OUR MAIN
FEATURE TODAY AND TOMORROW LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN COOLER CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED NEAR BERMUDA AND A STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BUILD NORTHWARD TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SETTLE OVER
THE REGION, PROMOTING STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING DEW
POINTS. AS A RESULT SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
FORECAST HIGHS ARE NEAR DAILY RECORDS, WITH RECORD HIGHS OF 87 AT
KBGM BOTH DAYS, 93 MONDAY AND 92 TUESDAY AT KAVP, AND 90 MONDAY AND
92 TUESDAY AT KSYR. ALTHOUGH YESTERDAYS NBM GUIDANCE APPEARED
TOO WARM, OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES ENDED UP CLOSER TO THE NBM
OUTPUT THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WITH THE NBM STILL RUNNING WARMER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE, THE ONGOING TREND OF SLIGHTLY LOWERING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WAS CONTINUED FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY
WITH NBM FORECASTING TEMPERATURES ABOVE DAILY RECORDS. AS MENTIONED,
DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE, REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S TODAY
AND TOMORROW, WITH SOME SPOTS EVEN REACHING THE UPPER 60S
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, SO THE HUMIDITY WILL BE NOTICEABLE.
HOWEVER THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER SCATTERED CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE MOVE THROUGH. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EML PLUME MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH NAM GUIDANCE INDICATING CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000
J/KG ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. DESPITE THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE,
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD, WHICH SHOULD LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THAT SAID, IF ANY STORMS ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP, THE ENVIRONMENT
COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH
FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
EARLIER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION, THERE WILL BE A
RELATIVELY LARGE TEMPERATURES GRADIENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION NY AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S OVER THE POCONO MOUNTAIN REGION PA. IF EVERYTHING CAN COME
TOGETHER, SOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE PA AND
THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT ELM/ITH/SYR/RME COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR - IFR FOG
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS, BUT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE IS LOW
AT THIS POINT, SO IT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S, IF THE TEMPERATURE CAN DROP QUICKLY
ENOUGH, THEN SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG COULD OCCUR, BUT AS
MENTIONED, THIS PROBABILITY IS LOW AND WILL PICK UP IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, MIXING OUT ANY
SATURATION THAT MAY OCCUR AT THE SURFACE.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR; SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTION POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR, BUT AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DK/ES
AVIATION...KL
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