854
FXUS61 KBGM 181752
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
152 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OUR MAIN
FEATURE TODAY AND TOMORROW LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN COOLER CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED NEAR BERMUDA AND A STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BUILD NORTHWARD TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SETTLE OVER
THE REGION, PROMOTING STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING DEW
POINTS. AS A RESULT SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
FORECAST HIGHS ARE NEAR DAILY RECORDS, WITH RECORD HIGHS OF 87 AT
KBGM BOTH DAYS, 93 MONDAY AND 92 TUESDAY AT KAVP, AND 90 MONDAY AND
92 TUESDAY AT KSYR. ALTHOUGH YESTERDAYS NBM GUIDANCE APPEARED
TOO WARM, OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES ENDED UP CLOSER TO THE NBM
OUTPUT THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WITH THE NBM STILL RUNNING WARMER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE, THE ONGOING TREND OF SLIGHTLY LOWERING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WAS CONTINUED FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY
WITH NBM FORECASTING TEMPERATURES ABOVE DAILY RECORDS. AS MENTIONED,
DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE, REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S TODAY
AND TOMORROW, WITH SOME SPOTS EVEN REACHING THE UPPER 60S
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, SO THE HUMIDITY WILL BE NOTICEABLE.
HOWEVER THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER SCATTERED CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE MOVE THROUGH. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EML PLUME MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH NAM GUIDANCE INDICATING CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000
J/KG ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. DESPITE THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE,
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD, WHICH SHOULD LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THAT SAID, IF ANY STORMS ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP, THE ENVIRONMENT
COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH
FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
EARLIER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION, THERE WILL BE A
RELATIVELY LARGE TEMPERATURES GRADIENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION NY AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S OVER THE POCONO MOUNTAIN REGION PA. IF EVERYTHING CAN COME
TOGETHER, SOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE PA AND
THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT,
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, FOR ITH, SYR AND RME AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASSES BY JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOMORROW, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 16-18Z, WHICH CAN RESULT IN SOME
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON.
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 15 TO 20
KNOTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND A BIT VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE AGAIN LATER TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, BUT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ062.
DISCUSSION...DK/ES
AVIATION...DK
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