033
FXUS61 KBGM 182315
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
715 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
VERY FEW IF ANY STORM CELLS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING, ALMOST
ALL LOCATIONS WILL STAY DRY. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS TUESDAY HAS
DECREASED AS SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE TRENDING LOWER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
INTO TUESDAY, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MUCH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
3) MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND COULD HAVE ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OUR FIRST TASTE OF SUMMER CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AS A STRONG
BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATES THE REGION. THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH
PUTS US IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING FOR STRONG SW
FLOW TO ADVECT WARM, HUMID AIR IN FROM THE SOUTHERN US. TEMPS
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW 90S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO
HOVERING AROUND 60F, WHICH IS THE USUALLY THE THRESHOLD FOR WHEN
IT STARTS TO FEEL STICKY OUTSIDE. THIS HUMID AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN QUITE WARM, WITH MID TO UPPER 60S
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HOT AND
STICKY AS SW FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, SO TEMPS COULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY/MONDAY, BUT IT WILL FEEL ABOUT THE SAME WITH HEAT INDICES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY
SLIDE IN FROM THE NW STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL DROP
TEMPS BELOW 60S NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER, AND KEEP TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY USUALLY ALSO IMPLIES INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, BUT THAT IS NOT THE CASE FOR THIS SET UP.
THE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST HAS A CENTER
500MB HEIGHT AROUND 592DM. WITH THIS STRONG HIGH SO CLOSE TO THE
COAST, ITS INFLUENCE SHOULD DOMINATE ANY THERMODYNAMIC
PROCESSES THAT WOULD TRY AND GET CONVECTION GOING. LOOKING AT
THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM HIGH-RES HOURLY CAMS, WE SEE A
VERY LARGE AND DEEP INVERTED V PROFILE DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE, WITH WAA PROVIDING A STRONG CAP IN THE
700-500MB RANGE. CAMS EARLIER IN THE DAY WERE SHOWING SOME
STORMS INITIATING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAKE
PLAIN, BUT THE LATEST RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF, SHOWING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS MOVING INTO NEPA AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE
STORMS WOULD DEVELOP OFF SOME LEFTOVER ENERGY FROM A MCS
CURRENTLY OVER IL/IN/MI MOVES ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS ENERGY WOULD BE ABLE TO PENETRATE
THE DYNAMICS FROM THE STRONG RIDGE AND GENERATE STORMS. ON
TUESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD, OPENING UP
OUR AREA TO BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SEVERE PARAMETERS FOR ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW END, WITH CAPE
UNDER 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 5-6C/KM AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-40KTS. ONE
FEATURE THAT COULD HELP GET SOME STORMS GOING, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE PLAIN AND INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY, IS ENERGY FROM A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO DIPPING INTO OUR AREA. MODELS
ARE SHOWING CHANCES OF STRONGER SHEAR AND LIFT N OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS THAT COULD
HELP DEVELOP SOME STORMS THAT COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE BIG
HINDRANCE SEEMS TO BE MORNING CLOUD COVER THAT LINGERS INTO THE
AFTERNOON, REDUCING SURFACE HEATING AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
WHICH WOULD LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. IF THE CLOUDS ARE NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS CURRENTLY FORECAST OR WE CAN SEE SOME CLEARING BY
LATE MORNING, THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND SEVERE CHANCES WILL
DEFINITELY INCREASE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE NW TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AS THE BERMUDA HIGH FLATTENS
AND MOVES TO THE SW AND A TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, BUT COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF RAIN STILL
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING
LESS AND LESS RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS THE FRONT RUNS INTO THE DRIER
AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, WITH UPPER END HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY, FALLING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES INTO THE TUG HILL REGION.
COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH NO
RAIN EXPECTED THRU FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WITH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IN SIGHT, THE WEATHER
UNFORTUNATELY MIGHT NOT COOPERATE FOR THOSE WHO WOULD LIKE TO
SPEND THE WEEKEND OUTSIDE WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES.
THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL SLIDE
TO THE ENE AS A TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO EJECT A
SHORTWAVE OR TWO INTO OUR AREA SAT AND SUN, BUT THE RIDGE MAY
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE AREA. THE POSITIONING
OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE, WITH LOW
60S ON SAT AND MID TO UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY. MEMORIAL DAY COULD
SEE TEMPS PUSH INTO THE 70S, BUT DEPENDING ON HOW THE RIDGE
BEHAVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WE COULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT
EVEN TONIGHT, BUT THE CHANCES ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN SPECIFIC TAFS, BUT IT WOULD BE REASONABLE TO
ANTICIPATE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IF A CELL ACTUALLY IMPACTS A
TERMINAL. INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT, VERSUS A VERY LIGHT AIRPORT WIND, WILL POSE MARGINAL
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME AT KELM-KITH-KSYR-
KRME. LLWS WILL BE GONE BEFORE DAYBREAK, AND THEN DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY, SURFACE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN WITH GUSTS OF 15-20
KNOTS.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
NEAR RECORD HIGHS THROUGH TUESDAY. BELOW ARE THE CURRENT
RECORDS, WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY, AND FORECAST TUESDAY.
TODAY/MONDAY...
KBGM - 87 DEGREES, SET IN 1962 (OBSERVED 87, TYING RECORD)
KSYR - 90 DEGREES, SET IN 1962 (OBSERVED 91, NEW RECORD)
KAVP - 93 DEGREES, SET IN 1962 (OBSERVED 91, SHORT OF RECORD)
TUESDAY...
KBGM - 87 DEGREES, REACHED IN 1962 AND 1996 (FORECAST 88)
KSYR - 92 DEGREES, SET IN 1971 (FORECAST 91)
KAVP - 92 DEGREES, SET IN 1962 (FORECAST 92)
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ062.
DISCUSSION...JTC/MDP
AVIATION...MDP
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