360
FXUS61 KBGM 190503
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
103 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TODAY, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW,
BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
3) MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND COULD HAVE ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
STRONG BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST, ALONG WITH THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION, WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS A RESULT, HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID
80S TO LOWERS 90S AND DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED EAST OF THE AREA, THE REGION WILL
REMAIN IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES GENERALLY UNDER 1000 J/KG
WITH THE NAM HAVING THE HIGHEST VALUE. OTHERWISE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE AROUND 5-6 C/KM WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30-40
KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ONE FEATURE THAT MAY HELP INITIATE STORMS IS A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO AND DIPPING INTO THE REGION. CAM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON
THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE MORNING AND WHETHER IT LINGERS
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GREATER CLEARING BY LATE MORNING WOULD
SUPPORT INCREASED INSTABILITY, LEADING TO BETTER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND A HIGHER SEVERE THREAT. A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH PREVIOUS SET RECORDS,
THOUGH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY KEEP HIGHS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT A STRONGER TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LOWS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AREA
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, WHILE NORTHEAST PA
REMAINS MILER WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OVERALL COVERAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS, AS
INITIAL SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE VERY DRY AIR MASS THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE REGION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY LIMITED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE COOLER AIR ARRIVES FIRST. COOLER HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION, WHILE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS LINGER LONGER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
REGION. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR THAT SETUP WOULD MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WYOMING
VALLEY AND POCONO MOUNTAIN REGION WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE. OTHERWISE INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA APPEARS
RATHER LIMITED.
COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THE AREA, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
LOOKING AHEAD TO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, MODEL GUIDANCE PUSHES AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO OUR REGION BY SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW RETURNING. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO PULL MOISTURE UP INTO THE
EAST COAST FROM THE GULF. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CHANCES SHOWERS TO
RETURN. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FEATURE LOOKS TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER
CHANCE BEFORE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. IF THIS FEATURE
PUSHES EAST QUICKLY THEN A WEAK RIDGE COULD BUILD INTO THE
REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE FORECAST BEING
FURTHER OUT, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR HOW
THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER LOOK TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
BY MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
LLWS AT A FEW CENTRAL NY TERMINALS THROUGH 07-09Z.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
CLIMATE
NEAR RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED TODAY. BELOW ARE THE CURRENT
RECORDS AND FORECASTED TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
TODAY/TUESDAY...
KBGM - 87 DEGREES, REACHED IN 1962 AND 1996 (FORECAST 87)
KSYR - 92 DEGREES, SET IN 1971 (FORECAST 90)
KAVP - 92 DEGREES,SET IN 1962 (FORECAST 92)
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ES/JTC
AVIATION...KL
CLIMATE...MDP
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