102
FXUS61 KBGM 191837
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
237 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO
DIMINISH. THAT BEING SAID, STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
2) FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
3) MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK SHOWERY AND COOL, WITH
PERHAPS SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY
MEMORIAL DAY ITSELF.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING HAS LINGERED INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT, INSTABILITY IS LARGELY LACKING. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED, BUT DUE TO THIS LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
LACK OF FORCING, THESE HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS UP TO THIS POINT (AS OF 2:15PM). A FEW PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS STILL COULD DEVELOP AT ANY POINT THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING, BUT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH.
A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN NY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THOSE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, BUT INDICATIONS POINT TO THIS LINE DISSIPATING
AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE LACK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND IT. DEW POINTS
WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER 60S AROUND DAWN TO THE 40S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
DROP, OR REMAIN STEADY IN THE 60S; AT LEAST FOR CENTRAL NY.
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST (WYOMING VALLEY-POCONOS-
CATSKILLS), WARMER AIR MAY LINGER LONGER AS THE COLD FRONT
LIKELY DOESN'T PASS THROUGH THOSE AREAS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THOSE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON,
BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA/CLOSER TO THE COAST.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND UNFORTUNATELY CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED
WITH SHOWERS AND COOL WEATHER, AS MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY, WHICH
WILL ALSO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXITS THE AREA TO THE EAST, MONDAY/MEMORIAL DAY COULD
EITHER BE ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS, OR PERHAPS A MAINLY
DRY DAY. EITHER WAY, MEMORIAL DAY SHOULD FEATURE A RETURN TO
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S, AFTER
SEVERAL BELOW NORMAL DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND
POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM, COULD AFFECT THE AIRPORTS ALONG THE NY
BORDER AND OVER NEPA UNTIL EARLY EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE AND TIMING IS EXCEPTIONALLY LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST. DID HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHRA NEARBY TO
KBGM AND KAVP WHERE IMMEDIATE CONVECTION IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
TCF FORECAST IS ALSO NOT INDICATING TSRA AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIVE MVFR CEILINGS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
AROUND 12Z ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY 18Z.
GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ABATE TONIGHT AND
THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG
AVIATION...JAB
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