904
FXUS61 KBGM 192349
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
749 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO
DIMINISH. THAT BEING SAID, STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM LATE LATER THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUES THIS EVENING, WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT.
2) FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
3) MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK SHOWERY AND COOL, WITH
PERHAPS SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY
MEMORIAL DAY ITSELF.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING HAS LINGERED INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT, INSTABILITY IS LARGELY LACKING. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED, BUT DUE TO THIS LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
LACK OF FORCING, THESE HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS UP TO THIS POINT (AS OF 2:15PM). A FEW PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS STILL COULD DEVELOP AT ANY POINT THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING, BUT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH.
A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN NY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THOSE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, BUT INDICATIONS POINT TO THIS LINE DISSIPATING
AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE LACK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND IT. DEW POINTS
WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER 60S AROUND DAWN TO THE 40S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
DROP, OR REMAIN STEADY IN THE 60S; AT LEAST FOR CENTRAL NY.
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST (WYOMING VALLEY-POCONOS-
CATSKILLS), WARMER AIR MAY LINGER LONGER AS THE COLD FRONT
LIKELY DOESN'T PASS THROUGH THOSE AREAS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THOSE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON,
BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA/CLOSER TO THE COAST.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND UNFORTUNATELY CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED
WITH SHOWERS AND COOL WEATHER, AS MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY, WHICH
WILL ALSO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXITS THE AREA TO THE EAST, MONDAY/MEMORIAL DAY COULD
EITHER BE ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS, OR PERHAPS A MAINLY
DRY DAY. EITHER WAY, MEMORIAL DAY SHOULD FEATURE A RETURN TO
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S, AFTER
SEVERAL BELOW NORMAL DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE NOT FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS STILL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH ANY TERMINALS. SYR AND ELM
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE IF THE STORMS DO MAKE IT AND AN AMENDMENT
WILL BE MADE IF SO. CIGS FALL TO MVFR ACROSS CNY BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT, WITH A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE.
ITH AND RME HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH
THE HELP OF THE TERRAIN BUT RAIN CANT BE RULED OUT AT ANY OF
THE OTHER CNY TERMINALS. THE FRONT DOES NOT REACH AVP UNTIL
TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT IN THE LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR AVP SO A PROB30 HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR
ROUGH TIMING. DRY AIR MIXES DOWN ACROSS CNY SO TERMINALS IN NY
WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY THE 16Z TO 19Z TIMEFRAME.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG/MJM
AVIATION...AJG/JAB
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