913
FXUS61 KBGM 201749
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
149 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE EXPECTED RAIN CHANCES AND TIMING
TODAY. TODAY'S FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED TO BE IN LINE
WITH THE HOURLY NBM DATA. NORTHWEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS WERE NUDGED
UP A FEW MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SURROUNDING
AREAS OF CENTRAL NY. PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL, WITH THUNDER CHANCES NOW ONLY EXTENDING
ACROSS MOST OF NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING
MORE CLOUDS, SHOWERS, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST PA AS THE FRONT TEMPORARILY STALLS NEARBY.
2) MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. OUR WEATHER SHOULD
REMAIN DRY MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
3) CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A RAINY, COOL START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE COULD EVENTUALLY BE SOME SHORT DRY PERIODS
LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MEMORIAL DAY, BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON THE TIMING OF THESE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE COLD FRONT IS BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID-60S TO MID-70S AS OF 2 AM
EDT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, ALONG WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO REACH THE NW FINGER LAKES AND SYRACUSE AREAS BY MID
MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW OR MID 60S AND
OVERCAST SKIES DEVELOPING. THE FRONT REACHES THE NY SOUTHERN TIER BY
EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH, ACROSS NE PA IT SHOULD STILL
WARM UP BETWEEN ABOUT 75 TO 85 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD, WITH UPWARDS OF
500 J/KG OF MLCAPE POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT THEN APPROACHES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T'STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE WYOMING VALLEY AND POCONOS REGION. AT
THIS TIME NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, AS
SPC HAS SHIFTED THE MARGINAL RISK CATEGORY JUST SOUTH AND EAST.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR NE PA ZONES
HEADING INTO TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDES NORTH AND
EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY; THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS TO NE PA AND/OR THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS, DEPENDING ON
EXACTLY WHERE THIS FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER END UP. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW TO MODERATE ON EXPECTED RAINFALL AND POPS FOR NE PA THURSDAY
MORNING, AND FOR NOW THE STUCK WITH THE ENSEMBLE (NBM)
CONSENSUS...WHICH ONLY GAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOR CENTRAL NY, THURSDAY SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S FOR
HIGHS, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. BLENDED IN SOME OF THE COLDER
GUIDANCE INTO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BETWEEN THE UPPER 30S TO MID-40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH A FEW OUTLYING AREAS COULD SEE MID-30S. WILL
NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS TO SEE IF ANY FROST
WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS, IN THE MID-60S TO LOW 70S WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES INTO THE AREA ALONG AND
ADVANCING FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY, CHILLY RAIN TO THE AREA IN THIS
TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST, BUT
SUPPLIES SOME VERY COOL LOW LEVEL AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
MAY HOLD IN THE 50S ALL DAY SATURDAY WITH THE OVERCAST AND WET
CONDITIONS. SUNDAY FEATURES MORNING SHOWERS, WITH SOME DRYING AND
PERHAPS SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL COOL, IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH MORE ROUNDS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING;
AGAIN THERE COULD BE SOME DRYING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON IF CURRENT
TIMING HOLDS. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS VERY SLOW TREK SOUTH WITH MVFR
CEILINGS JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT, CURRENTLY IMPACTING
ITH/BGM/ELM. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS SLIDE SOUTH, AND
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS TRICKY AS GUIDANCE HAS NOT
DONE A GREAT JOB MODELING THE CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FIRING OVER CENTRAL PA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS RETREATING TO
THE SE. CURRENT THINKING IS A GROUP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
FOLLOW THE CURVE AROUND THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
MOVE INTO THE AVP AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HEAVY RAIN
BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISBY. SOME SHOWERS MAY LEAK NORTH
OF THE FRONT INTO THE BGM/ELM AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE HERE IS LOW
THAT RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR.
WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE
MORE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AVP TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT AVP MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THESE SHOWERS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SYR AND RME WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ITH WILL SEE MVFR
CEILINGS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE BECOMING VFR AS THE LOW
CLOUDS SLIDE SOUTH.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...JTC
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