372
FXUS61 KBGM 031722
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
122 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
2) A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS
WEEKEND, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST, ALLOWING THE WARMING TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO
BRING UP HUMIDITY LATE IN THE WEEK, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH SOME AREAS POTENTIALLY
REACHING 90, BY FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME THIS WEEKEND, AS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST
TO DROP DOWN OUT OF CANADA ON SATURDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM,
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS DIFFERENT SCENARIOS REGARDING THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. IF THE SYSTEM STALLS OUT, THEN RAIN
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THE
AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WARM AND HUMID, SO
THERE WILL BE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IF THE FRONT DOES GET HUNG
UP, THEN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD PICK UP MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SINCE THE ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST WEEK HAVE BEEN DRY, AT THIS TIME, THE
RISK FOR FLOODING APPEARS LOW, EVEN IF THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
REGION. THE ONLY CONCERN AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL BE WHEN THE
FRONT INITIALLY DROPS INTO THE REGION, BECAUSE PWATS WILL BE
HIGHEST AT THIS TIME, AND THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH AS WELL, SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY. HIGHER
RAINFALL RATES IN SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IF THEY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA FOR
LONG ENOUGH OF A PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS GUSTING 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
3 KT OR LESS AROUND SUNSET ONCE AGAIN. FOG CHANCES AT ELM
TONIGHT ARE NOT ZERO, BUT VERY LOW GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
IN PLACE AND NO RECENT RAIN. NOT CONFIDENT TO ADD RESTRICTIONS
TO ELM.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM RAIN
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MONDAY...LOWER CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS AND PRECIPITATION AS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...AJG/BJT
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