469
FXUS61 KBGM 032325
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
725 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONTAL TIMING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TRENDS ARE FOR DRIER WEATHER TO
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A NEW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS.
ALSO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND FOR THE MIDDLE AND END
OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
2) A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY, LINGERING INTO THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM OVER THE WEEKEND.
3) DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN OMEGA BLOCK REDEVELOPS NEARBY, THEN TRANSITIONS INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES WELL OFF THE EAST COAST, ALLOWING THE
WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK OVER OUR
AREA. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A
WEST-SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID-
80S TO LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY. THIS IS ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR EARLY JUNE, AND THE HEAT COULD START TO HAVE SOME IMPACT
ON SENSITIVE INDIVIDUALS, AND THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO COOLING OR
PROPER HYDRATION. NWS HEAT RISK SHOWS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5, OR MODERATE
RISK FOR SOME OF OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS. THESE TEMPERATURES AND
APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, AS THE HUMIDITY IS REALLY LACKING
LATE THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
COME THIS WEEKEND, AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN OUT OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO OUR
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRING THE FIRST ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT DATA SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY AROUND, WITH POCKETS OF MLCAPE AROUND 500-750
J/KG CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER, 0-6KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 30-40 KTS, BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PREDICTED TO BE
POOR, ONLY AROUND 5.5 C/KM. PWATS WILL BE RISING, REACHING 1.75
INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER, IT APPEARS SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OR
CLUSTERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN VERY WARM SATURDAY, REACHING INTO THE 80S OVER THE AREA, WITH
SOME LOW 90S STILL POSSIBLE IN THE WYOMING VALLEY. SURFACE DEW
POINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, SO IT WILL FEEL SLIGHTLY
HUMID AT TIMES.
MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING
NOW. A NORTHWEST FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL STILL
POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
REDEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON OVER THE REGION. SHEAR AND
PWATS DECREASE THOUGH, SO THESE SHOULD BE JUST GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE TAPPED. PWATS FALL TO BETWEEN 1.0 TO
1.2 INCHES, BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO AROUND 6.5C/KM.
WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES BACK OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE DUE TO ANOTHER SHORT LIVED OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. INITIALLY THIS WILL BRING A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WE'LL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL BLOCK FADING TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, BUT MOVING NEAR OR OVER OUR LOCAL AREA. THIS
SHOULD ACT TO KEEP OUR AREA MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY EACH DAY.
500-1000MB THICKNESSES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 570-576DM, AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES REACH AROUND +15C. THESE PARAMETERS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK WELL INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE
EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO AROUND 3 KT OR LESS. FOG
CHANCES AT ELM TONIGHT ARE NOT ZERO, BUT VERY LOW GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AND NO RECENT RAIN. NOT CONFIDENT TO
ADD RESTRICTIONS TO ELM.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM RAIN
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MONDAY...LOWER CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS AND PRECIPITATION AS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KL/MJM
AVIATION...BJT/ES
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