170
FXUS61 KBGM 040431
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1231 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY THROUGH TOMORROW WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
2) A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY, LINGERING INTO THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM OVER THE WEEKEND.
3) DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN OMEGA BLOCK REDEVELOPS NEARBY, THEN TRANSITIONS INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A
WEST- SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH
THE MID- 80S TO LOWER 90S BY TOMORROW AS WELL, WHICH WOULD BE ABOUT
10-12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY JUNE, AND THE HEAT COULD
START TO HAVE SOME IMPACT ON SENSITIVE INDIVIDUALS, AND THOSE
WITHOUT ACCESS TO COOLING OR PROPER HYDRATION. NWS HEAT RISK
SHOWS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5, OR MODERATE RISK FOR SOME OF OUR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. THESE TEMPERATURES AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, AS
HUMIDITY IS LOW DUE TO HOW DRY THE AIR MASS OVERHEAD IS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
COME THIS WEEKEND, AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH. A FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRING
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE, THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
STORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. PWATS WILL BE
RISING, REACHING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PUTTING
IT ALL TOGETHER, IT APPEARS SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OR CLUSTERS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM
SATURDAY, REACHING INTO THE 80S OVER THE AREA, WITH SOME LOW 90S
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE WYOMING VALLEY. SURFACE DEW POINTS RISE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, SO IT WILL FEEL SLIGHTLY HUMID AT
TIMES.
A NORTHWEST FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL STILL
POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
REDEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON OVER THE REGION. SHEAR
AND PWATS DECREASE THOUGH, SO THESE SHOULD BE JUST GENERAL,
NON-SEVERE STORMS IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE TAPPED. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AROUND AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS FROM CANADA SETTLES BACK OVER THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE DUE TO
ANOTHER SHORT LIVED OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. INITIALLY THIS WILL BRING A
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE'LL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE UPPER LEVEL BLOCK FADING TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, BUT
MOVING NEAR OR OVER OUR LOCAL AREA. THIS SHOULD ACT TO KEEP OUR
AREA MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY EACH DAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO AROUND 3 KT OR LESS. FOG
CHANCES AT ELM TONIGHT ARE NOT ZERO, BUT VERY LOW GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AND NO RECENT RAIN. NOT CONFIDENT TO
ADD RESTRICTIONS TO ELM.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM RAIN
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MONDAY...LOWER CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS AND PRECIPITATION AS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...BJT/ES
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