044
FXUS61 KBGM 051014
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
614 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE,
FORECAST PACKAGE HAS MINOR EDITS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF FULLY DRY CONDITIONS. VERY
WARM, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AGAIN
TODAY.
2) A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
3) ANOTHER OMEGA BLOCK REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE US, BUT THE RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL US IS NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB AS HIGH INTO CANADA
AS LAST WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEK AS WARM AIR MOVES OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHEAST US.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF FULLY DRY CONDITIONS, WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS IN NE PA TO HIT 90 DEGREES. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE BOUNDARY LATER MIXING, RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL,
SUMMER-LIKE DAY IN STORE TO END THE WORK WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE PAST
WEEK WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN, ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TOMORROW. RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, RESULTING IN POPCORN-LIKE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. WITH THE FRONT PASSING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY (UP TO 1000 J/KG) TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH AN AREA OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
BETWEEN 30-40KTS FORECAST TO MOVE IN ALONG THE FRONT. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 6-6.5 C/KM AND THE MODEST CAPE AND SHEAR
COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED
AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR TOMORROW, AND THE
CURRENT FORECASTED PARAMETERS MATCH THIS RISK. IF THE PASSAGE
COMES EARLIER IN THE DAY, THE CHANCES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
WEATHER COULD DECREASE, OR IF CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE MORNING
DO NOT SCATTER OUT AND LAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, LIMITING
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY MODELED TO BE IN THE
1.5-1.75IN RANGE, THIS COULD LEAD TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
DURING STORMS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS AN AREA
STORM CHANCES SHOULD WANE IN THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES, BUT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLIDES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND WITH COLD AIR ALOFT, A FEW
SCATTERED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG AND EAST OF I-81,
ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW PROVIDING UPSLOPE INTO THE
CATSKILLS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ANOTHER OMEGA BLOCK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS STRONG AS THE BLOCK
FROM THIS PAST WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BUILD AS FAR NORTH INTO CANADA, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
WARM AIR FROM THE CENTRAL AND SW US TO CLIMB OVER THE RIDGE AXIS
AND SPILL INTO THE REGION. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL WARM TO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT, DEPENDING
ON THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE, WE COULD SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS. AMD NOT SKED
ADDED TO KITH GIVEN LACK OF OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING. ALSO, IT
IS UNKNOWN IF CONSTRUCTION OR VERY SHALLOW FOG IS IMPACTING
VISIBILITIES AT KELM.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR TO START THEN RESTRICTIONS FROM
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...MWG
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