432
FXUS61 KBGM 051908
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
308 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHTLY LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. RAIN
CHANCES WERE ADJUSTED FOR SATURDAY BASED ON LATEST HIGH RES
MODEL GUIDANCE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
2) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS, STARTING SATURDAY MORNING AND
LASTING INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COOL FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
3) ANOTHER RIDGING PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN US. THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BUILD AS HIGH INTO CANADA AS THIS PAST WEEK, ALLOWING HOT AIR TO
OVERRUN THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND SPILL ONTO THE REGION BY MID-
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE STRONG RIDGE DOMINATING OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL, TOPPING OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S TODAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AS
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW, FALLING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE STRONG RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
PAST WEEK WILL FINALLY FLATTEN OUT AND SAG SOUTH, ALLOWING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
TOMORROW. A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED DEVELOP EARLY IN THE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY MORE ROBUST
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING LATE TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
AROUND SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MOSTLY NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER,
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY REMAIN OVER CNY INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE NW
STARTING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND SLOWLY TRACK TO THE
SE. THIS FRONT WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE REGION.
MUCH OF THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE STILL IS UNCERTAIN ON
TIMING OF THE NEEDED FEATURES TO PRODUCE SEVERE STORMS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MORNING SHOWERS COULD LIMIT SURFACE HEATING,
KEEPING A CAP IN PLACE NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND HINDERING
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. JUST NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CATSKILLS AND NEPA CURRENTLY LOOKS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP. CAPE
VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THIS REGION BY MID AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40KTS AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
8C SHOULD ALLOW MULTI-CELL STORMS TO ORGANIZE, WITH CHANCES FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPING AS SOME TIMING ISSUES REMAIN WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND IF IT WILL MATCH UP WITH THE BEST
PERIOD OF SHEAR. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED IN THE MORNING, IF
THEY EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, COULD ALSO
HINDER SEVERE DEVELOPMENT.
ON SUNDAY, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO NEW ENGLAND
FROM THE NORTH. UPSLOPE LOW ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-81 SHOULD
KICK OFF SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BACK IN PLACE BY SUNDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ANOTHER RIDGING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT
THRU MONDAY, WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH
TO OUR EAST WILL SLIDE EAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RIDGE
AXIS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND SW FLOW TO RETURN,
PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. HOT TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. WE MAY SEE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS MIDWEEK AS A TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING IN
THE CENTRAL US, BUT GUIDANCE IS TOO VARIED AT THIS TIME FOR
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOW CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. A ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NY AS
EARLY AS 09Z AND ARE EXPECTED MAINLY AT RME, SYR, AND ITH. A
PASSING SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ELM AND BGM. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL CENTRAL NY TERMINALS. GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT A BRIEF PERIOD FOR FUEL ALT BUT THIS FORECAST CAPPED
RESTRICTIONS AT MVFR FOR NOW. AVP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND
IN VFR.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AND GUSTS AROUND
15 KTS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO
PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR; LINGERING SHOWERS AT CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...BTL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page