726
FXUS61 KBGM 060432
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1232 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHTLY LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK AS NEWER HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE IS INTEGRATED INTO THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW. MAIN STORM
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH
SOME MORNING DAYTIME RAIN SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
2) ANOTHER RIDGING PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN US. THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BUILD AS HIGH INTO CANADA AS THIS PAST WEEK, ALLOWING HOT AIR TO
OVERRUN THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND SPILL ONTO THE REGION BY MID-
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SHORTWAVE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE, WHICH SHOULD KICK OFF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MOSTLY
NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER, MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NY INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
SLOWLY TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION.
WE'RE SEEING INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOP ALIGN
OVER THE AREA TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELED
PARAMETERS OF UP TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE, WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR, AND SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW
FOR ANY STORMS THAT ARE TRIGGERED TO BECOME SEVERE. HOWEVER,
THE ONGOING UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING OF THE FRONT IS COMING TO A
CLEARER CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS. IF SEVERE STORMS WERE TO
DEVELOP, THE MAIN THREATS INCLUDE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS, AS
WELL AS HAIL.
EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING DAYTIME CONVECTION AND SOME
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR A RATHER UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT HEADING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS,
WHICH THE CONSENSUS FOR THE SURFACE FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS TO
BEGIN TO TRACK INTO OUR AREA, MEANING ANY TRIGGERED STORMS COULD
GROW FAST INTO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
CURRENTLY, THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT WOULD
BE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER SOUTH AND EAST INTO NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR MORNING DAYTIME CONVECTION
AND SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NY, CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE STORMS IS A
LITTLE LOWER, SINCE THIS MAY DECREASE THE TIME FOR
DESTABILIZATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER RIDGING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE
TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL SLIDE EAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE
RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO RETURN, PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. WE MAY
SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS MIDWEEK AS A TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND ANOTHER RIDGE
BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL US, BUT GUIDANCE IS TOO VARIED AT THIS
TIME FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOW CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING.
AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. A
ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NY AS EARLY AS 09Z AND
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY AT RME, SYR, AND ITH. A PASSING SHOWER OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ELM AND BGM. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT RME/SYR/ITH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS HOLD
A BIT LONGER AT ELM/BGM/AVP BEFORE SHOWERS SETTLE IN AT THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL
SITES LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON HEADING INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR; LINGERING SHOWERS AT CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...BTL/ES
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page